If parliamentary elections were held this coming Sunday the Civic Coalition would win—according to the latest poll by the Nationwide Research Group for Poland’s State. Only two coalition parties would enter the Sejm.
Poll Results
According to the latest survey conducted by the Nationwide Research Group for the portal “State of Politics”, if parliamentary elections were held this coming Sunday the Civic Coalition would secure the highest share of votes. Donald Tusk’s coalition received 33.37% of respondents—a 1.7‑point increase over July’s results. This would translate into 185 seats in the Sejm—more than the 157 seats won in 2023. Law and Justice, in second place, garnered 30.59%—a 3.7‑point rise from a month earlier—equating to 179 seats, six fewer than the current count. Confederation finished third with 15.38%, a 1.3‑point decline from July, yielding 80 seats. In 2023 Confederation had brought 18 MPs to the Sejm, currently there are 16.
Other Parties
Fourth place in the OGP poll was taken by the Polish Crown Confederation, Grzegorz Braun’s party (https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/grzegorz-braun#anchorLink), which would receive 5.34% of respondents—a 1.9‑point drop from July. Directly behind it was New Left with 5.03% (a 1.6‑point decline). These were the last parties that would enter the Sejm, each bringing eight MPs. Just below the threshold were Poland 2050 with 3.55% (up 0.2), the Polish People’s Party at 3.44% (up 0.3), and Together Party with 3.30% (down 1.1). The survey was conducted from August 6–13 with 1,000 Poles using CATI.
Earlier Poll
In a recent survey by the Pollster Institute for “Super Express”, the Civic Coalition secured 32.04% of votes. Law and Justice followed with 30.88%. Confederation third with 12.84%, New Left fourth at 6.98%, and Poland 2050 fifth at 5.18%. Just below the electoral threshold were Polish Crown Confederation (4.91%) and Together Party (4.67%). Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (Polish People’s Party) rounded out the lowest place with 2.4%. This poll was carried out on August 8–9 with a sample of 1,006 adult Poles.