A United Surveys poll for Virtual Poland finds Poland’s Coalition of the Republic secures 31.5% of votes, falling short of a Sejm majority, while Donald Braun’s new Confederation party could become a decisive kingmaker.
Coalition Wins Election but Lacks Majority
United Surveys by IBRiS for Virtual Poland reported that the Coalition of the Republic obtains 31.5% of the votes, a decline of 1.3 percentage points from the previous poll. Despite the victory, the party would be unable to form a government on its own, and an alliance with the Left would still not secure a Sejm majority. A potential partner, Donald Tusk, would command 7.2% support in the Sejm. Law and Justice comes second with 25.1% after a 1.6‑point drop.
PSL and Polska 2050 Fail to Reach Parliament
Among the largest losers are former coalition partners of Donald Tusk: the Polish People’s Party (PSL) garners 4.9% and Polska 2050 only 1.0%. Both parties would sit outside the Sejm. The left‑wing Party Together also would not win a seat with 2.4%. The share of undecided voters rises to 7.7%, possibly signalling further swings.
Braun Enters the Fray
The poll accounted for two Confederation lists. In this scenario, Confederation receives 12.1%, while the Polish Crown Confederation led by Donald Braun obtains 8.1%. These figures give Braun significant Sejm representation and make him a potential kingmaker. The data also shows a growing vote for right‑wing parties.
Right‑Wing Majority Scenario
Using the WP simulation based on Professor Jarosław Flis’s calculator, the next Sejm would have 190 seats for the Coalition of the Republic, 147 for Law and Justice, 61 for Confederation, 34 for Donald Braun’s Polish Crown Confederation, and 28 for the Left. The Coalition and the Left together would hold 218 seats, 13 short of a majority. Only a PiS–Confederation–Braun bloc with 242 seats would achieve a majority.
Other Polls Reflect Similar Trends
Opinia24, for TVN’s “Fakty”, shows the Coalition at 32.8% (+1.1pp), Law and Justice at 25.4% (+0.3pp), Confederation at 10.7% (−3.9pp), and Braun’s group at 8.6% (+2.4pp). An OGB study last week reported Braun’s party first surpassing Bosak and Mentzena, 11.8% versus 10.67%. Meanwhile, the Left is hovering at the threshold of parliamentary entry.