Military analysts detect heightened Russian military activity in aviation and naval forces, potentially foreshadowing a nighttime attack.
Increased Russian Military Activity
According to military analyst Artur Micek, very high activity of Russian strategic aviation, the Black Sea Fleet, and personnel at airports and drone launch points was recorded on the afternoon of January 19. Particular attention is drawn to the intensive radio activity of Russian strategic aviation, observed after 18:00 on several communication channels. In the past, such activities have often preceded missile attacks on Ukraine.
Tu-95 Bomber Relocations
Russians have relocated Tu-95 bombers between several air bases. Two bombers arrived at the Białe base from the Ukrainka airfield, where two other machines of this type were already located. There may be at least four Tu-95s in total. Four more Tu-95 bombers were moved to the Olenya base. Three of them previously flew to the Engels airfield, where they were armed with maneuvering missiles Ch-101, and then returned to Olenya. There may be from four to six machines in this base in total. Additionally, two more Tu-95 bombers were moved to the Diagilevo base from the Ukrainka airfield.
Potential Strike Capability
Estimates suggest that Russia may have up to 14 Tu-95 bombers potentially ready for attack, though realistically about 10 machines may be capable of immediate use. In addition, there are two Tu-160 bombers stationed at the Ukrainka base. The strike potential is also supplemented by missile-carrying ships: three units on the Caspian Sea and two on the Black Sea, which can carry maneuvering missiles.
Risk of Nighttime Attack
The analyst assesses that the risk of a Russian attack in the coming night is at a medium level, however it cannot be ruled out. In the past, similar concentrations of strategic aviation and radio activity have preceded massive missile strikes. Russians have reportedly delivered at least 10 Iskander M ballistic missiles to the Voronezh and Bryansk districts.
