On December 5‑8, United Surveys for Virtual Poland found Poland’s Civic Coalition leading with 32.8 % support, while the Confederation slid and Grzegorz Braun’s party narrowly missed the Sejm threshold.
Latest Poll Results
The Civic Coalition (Koalicja Obywatelska) topped the most recent United Surveys poll conducted for Virtual Poland, securing 32.8 % of respondents—a 1.9‑percentage‑point gain over the 21‑23 November round. Law and Justice (Prawo i Sprawiedliwość) followed at 26.7 %, up 0.3 percentage points. Confederation (Konfederacja) placed third with 13.1 %, 2.5 percentage points lower. Grzegorz Braun’s Confederation Crown (Konfederacja Korony Polskiej Grzegorza Brauna) garnered 8.4 %, a 2‑point rise, while the Left (Lewica) achieved 7.1 %, down 0.8 percentage points.
Polish People’s Party (PSL) recorded 3.1 %, Together Party (Partia Razem) 2.8 %, and Poland 2050 1 %. Five percent of respondents were unsure of how they would vote.
Projected Sejm Seat Distribution
Using the poll figures, Virtual Poland projected that, in a 460‑seat Sejm, the Civic Coalition would receive 189 seats, Law and Justice 150, and Confederation 63. The Confederation Crown would secure 33 seats, while the Left would obtain 25. No single party would achieve an outright majority, and rebuilding the current governing coalition would be impossible as only two of the four participating groups would surpass the electoral threshold.
Previous November Poll Findings
The All‑Nation Research Group’s November 22‑25 poll put the Civic Coalition at 38.01 %, Law and Justice at 27.97 %, Confederation at 13.97 %, and the Confederation Crown at 8.94 %. Left, Together Party, PSL, and Poland 2050 all fell below the threshold. Seat projections from that poll indicated 210 seats for the Civic Coalition, 152 for Law and Justice, 62 for Confederation, and 36 for the Confederation Crown.
Methodology and Timing
The latest United Surveys poll was carried out between 5‑8 December 2025 using CATI & CAWI methods on a representative sample of 1,000 adult Poles. The previous November poll used CATI on the same sample size.