Estonia will not actively halt Russia’s network of aging tankers circumventing sanctions, citing a high risk of military escalation in the Gulf of Finland.
Russia’s Shadow Fleet and Sanctions Evasion
Oil and petroleum products are crucial for Russian exports, providing approximately 30 percent of the country’s budget revenue before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. In response, the European Union imposed sanctions on Moscow to reduce its profits and limit conflict funding.
Russia has circumvented these sanctions through the illegal transport of resources using a group of aging vessels – known as the “shadow fleet” – registered under flags including Panama, Liberia, Gabon, and the Marshall Islands.
Estonian Concerns and Restraint
Estonia fears escalation with Russia and will only intervene if there is a direct threat to its underwater infrastructure or a potential oil spill, according to Estonian Navy Commander Ivo Vark.
Several European nations, including France, the United Kingdom, Belgium, and Sweden, have increased efforts to intercept the Russian “shadow fleet.”
Russian Military Presence in the Gulf of Finland
Russia has increased its military presence in the Gulf of Finland, maintaining a constant patrol of two to three armed warships and deploying additional vessels near routes used by Russian oil tankers.
This increased activity followed an incident in May 2025, where Estonia attempted to stop a suspected tanker violating Western sanctions, but the vessel refused to cooperate. Russia subsequently intervened with a fighter jet.
NATO Airspace Violation
On May 15th, Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna stated that a Russian fighter jet violated NATO airspace to protect a tanker from the shadow fleet, escorting it into Russian waters. Tsahkna described the incident as evidence of Russia’s threat to the entire North Atlantic Alliance.
Operational Considerations
Commander Vark noted that Russia’s presence is limited in the Atlantic Ocean and the North Sea, allowing for more time and freedom of action against these vessels, with a lower risk of military engagement and escalation.