Europe’s aviation fuel reserves may last only six weeks, warns the International Energy Agency, due to disruptions linked to conflict around Iran.
Europe on the Brink of a Fuel Crisis
Europe is facing a real risk of disruptions to air traffic. According to the head of the International Energy Agency, the continent’s aviation fuel reserves may only last a few weeks if a key oil transport route remains blocked, reports Associated Press.
The situation is directly linked to the conflict surrounding Iran and tensions in the Persian Gulf.
IEA Chief Warns of Unprecedented Crisis
Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, warned in an interview with Associated Press that Europe has only about six weeks of aviation fuel reserves. This scenario, if oil supply disruptions persist, could lead to disruptions in the aviation sector.
Ormuz Strait: A Critical Chokepoint
Birol emphasized that the situation is unprecedented and represents the most serious energy crisis of his career. He indicated that its source is the restriction of the flow of raw materials through the Strait of Hormuz – one of the most important transport points for the global energy market.
“If the free flow is not restored, we may soon hear about canceled flights due to lack of fuel,” he warned.
Economic Consequences and Price Increases
Approximately 20 percent of global oil trade normally flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Current restrictions – resulting from military tensions and Iranian actions – are disrupting this flow, directly impacting fuel availability in Europe and other regions.
Even a short-term blockage of this route has immediate effects on prices and availability of raw materials, potentially leading to economic destabilization. Higher prices for fuel, gas, and electricity are inevitable.
Airlines Already Feeling the Impact
While major European airlines, such as KLM and easyJet, do not yet confirm direct fuel shortages, the industry is already feeling the effects of the crisis through rising operating costs.
KLM announced a reduction of approximately 160 connections to and from Schiphol Airport in Amsterdam, representing about 1 percent of the carrier’s European network. The decision was justified by rising fuel prices, making some routes unprofitable.
Delta Air Lines acknowledges it is monitoring the situation in Europe, pointing to the potential risk of problems with aviation fuel supplies in the coming weeks. For passengers, this means not only the possibility of canceled flights but also higher ticket prices and additional fees.
Global Repercussions and Recession Risk
According to Birol, the effects of the crisis will be felt worldwide, but developing economies – particularly in Asia, Africa, and Latin America – will suffer the most. The expert warned that a prolonged lack of stability in energy supplies could lead to slower economic growth and even recession in some countries.
“No country is immune to this crisis. The differences will relate only to the scale of the losses,” he emphasized.
Further Concerns: Iranian Transit Fees and Infrastructure Damage
There are also concerns about a precedent being set with Iran potentially imposing a fee for ships passing through the strait. Such a solution – if it became permanent – could affect the functioning of other strategic sea routes, such as the Strait of Malacca.
The conflict has also led to significant damage to energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf region. According to data presented by Birol, more than 80 key energy facilities have been damaged, with over a third sustaining serious or very serious damage. This means that even if a peace agreement is reached, a return to pre-conflict production levels could take up to two years.
Geopolitics and Energy Intertwined
Fatih Birol pointed out that the current situation confirms the close link between energy and geopolitics. He assessed that the impact of conflicts on the raw materials market has never been so strong and long-lasting.
He also stressed that the crisis could accelerate the energy transition and the development of alternative energy sources, including nuclear energy. At the same time, he noted that this process will not happen immediately and will not solve current problems with fuel availability.
“Energy has always been linked to conflicts, but the scale of the current tensions is exceptional,” he assessed.