Baltic leaders raised Europe’s nuclear deterrence role at the Munich Security Conference amid doubts about US guarantees under Trump.
Distrust in US Guarantees
Debate intensified following Donald Trump’s past doubts about NATO’s Article 5 and criticism of allies’ defense spending. Some European capitals fear Washington might not defend them unconditionally in a Russian attack. Estonian Deputy Defense Minister Tuuli Duneton did not exclude preliminary talks on a European nuclear deterrent, while noting the US remains “committed to providing the nuclear umbrella.”
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte stated European discussions are permissible as long as they don’t undermine the US role. “No one in Europe is talking about replacing the American nuclear umbrella,” Rutte assured.
France and Britain in Focus
France and Britain remain Europe’s sole nuclear powers. EU nations now look to Paris and London. President Emmanuel Macron announced a speech on French nuclear doctrine in early March. In Munich, he spoke of “redefining deterrence” in a broader conventional context, including long-range missiles.
Some countries suggest closer integration of French arsenals with NATO nuclear planning. However, French Defense Minister Alice Rufo clearly stated Paris has no intention of including its nuclear capabilities in NATO’s Nuclear Planning Group.
Divergent Visions for Europe
Several scenarios for European nuclear deterrence were discussed in conference corridors, according to POLITICO.
Not all capitals are enthusiastic. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez stated Europe must strengthen itself, but “nuclear armament is not the right path.”
