Europe cuts Russian gas import, but rising US LNG dependency grows as Trump pressures Europe with tariffs.
The Shift from Russian Gas
After Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Europe reduced Russian gas imports from 45% to 12% of its total. The EU aims to end all Russian gas imports by 2026-2027 via a new regulation.
European countries lack sufficient domestic gas reserves, requiring increased imports from diverse sources like Arab nations and the Atlantic.
Growing US Role
American LNG imports to Europe quadrupled from 2021 to 2025, now comprising 57% of the EU’s LNG supply and 27% of its total gas imports. By 2030, US supplies could reach 40% of total EU gas imports, including 75-80% of LNG.
A 2023 EU-US trade agreement includes a commitment to purchase $750 billion in US energy carriers like gas and oil in the coming years.
The Cost Factor
The US is the most expensive source for imported LNG. However, Reuters notes this dependency differs from Russian reliance, as US contracts involve multiple suppliers and benefit both markets—Europe needs the gas, and the US industry relies on this market for half its LNG export value.
Though LNG offers flexibility compared to pipelines, long-term contracts still create dependency, and Europe remains vulnerable to price volatility.
The Path to Sovereignty
Europe’s energy security strengthened between 2021-2024 as gas consumption decreased by 20%. The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis argues that investing in domestic renewable energy—like wind and solar—provides better long-term security than importing fuels.
Renewables offer different economics: once built, solar panels and wind turbines generate power for decades, unlike LNG terminals or gas plants requiring continuous fuel imports. The $750 billion spent on US energy could instead build 546 GW of wind and solar capacity, nearly doubling the EU’s current renewable output.
Experts conclude that while gas remains necessary short-term, true energy security in the medium and long term requires abandoning fossil fuels to prevent price shocks and geopolitical weaponization of energy.
