EU decision may determine Ukraine war’s outcome, says German analyst, urging use of financial leverage against Russia.
Front Stalls, Heavy Casualties
Konrad Schuller reports that since July 2024, Russia has advanced only 28 km in front of Pokrovskoe, with the frontline essentially frozen. Drone swarms watch every movement, and the daily Russian casualty count stands at 1,033 soldiers.
Who Wins? Endurance Over Resources
Schuller argues that victory hinges not on a spectacular breakthrough but on accumulated reserves. “The side that runs out of people, money, and materiel first will lose,” he says.
Economic Power Determines Victory
He stresses that the economy and available reserves will decide the war’s outcome. While Russia’s larger population and territory appear advantageous, they have not ensured success.
Mass vs. Morale
Russia’s reliance on large numbers is offset by low morale, with heavy losses among Bashkortostan’s soldiers far exceeding those near Saint Petersburg. Ukraine, however, enjoys compulsory service and nationwide engagement.
Both Armies Even
At present the two armed forces are roughly equal; Ukraine’s persistence is economically driven. Russia’s drone production and oil and gas exports continue, yet sanctions are eroding profits and slowing growth.
Sanctions Hurt Russian Economy
Russian tank shipments to the front come from depleted reserves, as sanctions raise taxes and shrink growth. The domestic industry is under pressure.
Putin’s Production Strategy
Schuller warns that escalating armament production may require a Stalin‑era approach—replacing consumer goods with Kalashnikovs—potentially provoking unrest in Moscow and St. Petersburg.
Ukraine’s Limited Resources
Despite experienced troops and innovative technology, Ukraine lacks the funds for mass production. “The best prototypes won’t help without money for large‑scale production,” the author notes.
European Financial Support
Schuller says Europeans can play a decisive role. With EU GDP eight times that of Russia, coordinated financial aid and asset freezes could undermine Russian willpower.
Declarations and Sources
This analysis is derived from a piece in the German publication Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung, reported via Deutsche Welle.