A December 17 nationwide survey shows Grzegorz Braun’s Crown of Poland party leaping into third, overtaking the Confederation, according to the National Research Group.
Survey Results
On Wednesday 17 December, the Nationwide Research Group released its new parliamentary poll. The Civic Coalition led the rankings with 35.29 %, followed by Law and Justice at 31.21 %. Grzegorz Braun’s Crown of Poland Confederation secured third place with 11.8 %.
The poll, conducted from 9–15 December via CATI on a sample of 1,000 respondents, indicates Braun’s party has overtaken the long‑running Confederation. The Confederation coalition, led by Sławomir Mentzen and Krzysztof Basak, received 10.67 %.
Other Parties Outside the Sejm
Below the electoral threshold fell New Left with 4.95 %, Party Together at 3.33 %, Polish People’s Party at 1.71 % and Poland 2050 at 1.66 %. According to the poll’s seat allocation model, the Civic Coalition would receive 191 seats, Law and Justice 178, Crown of Poland Confederation 48, and the Confederation 43 in the Sejm.
Conclusions from the Latest Poll
National Research Group president Łukasz Pawłowski noted that the results for the Confederation and Crown of Poland “approximate a tie rather than a margin.” He highlighted detailed findings by age group, stating that Braun’s party is catching up to the Confederation among voters aged 18‑39, with a 10 % share in the 30‑39 cohort, the highest across all groups.
Pawłowski observed that Braun’s party “tied with the Confederation among men” and “overtook the Confederation in rural areas.” He added that it is now the second‑most popular choice among voters declaring right‑wing views.
IPSOS Survey: One Third of 2023 Confederation Voters Aim for Braun’s Crown
Between 5–9 December, IPSOS surveyed 1,000 respondents for Radio ZET. The Civic Coalition topped the list with 30 %, Law and Justice at 25 %, and the Confederation at 13 %. Beyond the podium were Crown of Poland (7 %), New Left (7 %), Together (6 %), Poland 2050 (3 %), and Polish People’s Party (3 %). “Don’t know/difficult to say” responses accounted for 7 %.
Results suggest that no representatives from Polish People’s Party or Poland 2050 would enter the Sejm. The study also compared electorate flow to the 2023 parliamentary elections. Notably, 60 % of current Confederation voters still prefer the Confederation, while 30 % now intend to vote for Braun’s group; 4 % of former Confederation supporters plan to back Law and Justice. The survey used CATI and CAWI methods.
