Four years into the conflict, Ukraine has resisted Russian advances despite early intelligence failures and political hesitancy.
Initial Expectations and Failures
It was believed the Kremlin would attempt to occupy the rest of Donbas and illegally annex it. Threatened cities included Kramatorsk, Mariupol, and then-Sievierodonetsk. No one expected strikes on Kyiv from Belarus, though perhaps they should have. Americans, based on intelligence, had warned for weeks that the attack on the capital would come via Hostomel airport near Kyiv, a scenario confirmed by HUR head Kyrylo Budanov. However, political authorities delayed decisions. President Volodymyr Zelensky reassured there would be no war, and in May, his compatriots would barbecue at dachas instead of heading to the front, with France and Germany reinforcing this belief.
A state of emergency allowing mobilization was not declared in time, and Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhny had to hide some actions from politicians. Even Budanov, who knew more than others, acted haphazardly. Maksym Butchenko’s book “Ostriw HUR. Tajemnychi, operatsiji, viina” portrays a brave commander who, after the first Russian attempt at a Hostomel landing, urgently organized units to support stationed troops. Notably, some forces had been withdrawn and redirected to Luhansk Oblast just before February 24. Butchenko suggests elements of betrayal.
The First Day of Chaos
I will remember the first day as a struggle with chaos. Information mixed with lies; fleeing people blocked major city exits, and COVID masks disappeared from the metro as rocket strikes suddenly posed a greater threat than the virus. But I remember something else too: an immense, palpable determination on every step, a conviction that this war could be won—something absent in Berlin, where Ambassador Andrii Melnyk was told by German authorities that requests for help were pointless since Ukraine had mere days left, or in Washington, where Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov returned with a similar message.
Unwavering Determination
This determination, the Ukrainian “get your shit together, don’t give up” attitude, the “Russian warship, go fuck yourself” from Snake Island, Zelensky’s selfie-style video in besieged Kyiv stating “I’m here and not leaving”—all this convinced me, when a Slovak reporter relayed that the defense would fail by late February, that he was wrong. That determination still impresses. It enabled Ukrainians to push occupiers from Kyiv, recapture Kharkiv and Kherson Oblast, win the battle for the Black Sea and shipping routes to Odesa, and strike military facilities and refineries as far as Siberia.
Resilience and Challenges
It also leads Ukrainians to reject concessions in polls, even when their biggest ally, the United States, halted military aid under commercial terms (paid by Europeans) after Donald Trump’s inauguration, making Washington’s stance unclear. This determination can be a poor advisor, pushing Ukrainians into a messianic complex of saving Western civilization from Russian barbarism and impolitely treating allies, as Poles sometimes experienced. Yet primarily, it allows Ukraine to endure. An enduring Ukraine deflects the specter of war from Russia’s other borders, from Finland to Poland.
