Exit polls indicate Greens leading CDU in German state election, with right-wing AfD making significant gains.
Election Results
ZDF exit poll shows Greens at 31.5%, CDU at 30.5%, AfD at 18%, and SPD at 5.5%. ARD poll reports similar results with Greens at 32%, CDU at 29%, AfD at 17.5%, and SPD at 5.5%. Both Left party and liberal FDP failed to cross the 5% threshold.
Government Formation
If results hold, Cem Özdemir from the Greens is expected to become premier, potentially leading a continuation of the Green-CDU coalition that has governed since 2016. The 60-year-old Özdemir, of Turkish origin, has a extensive political career including serving as federal education minister, MEP, and Greens leader.
Political Implications
The CDU’s result is viewed as disappointing, as they led by up to 15 percentage points in recent polls. Analysts described it as a “humiliating defeat” for the party. The election was seen as a test of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s popularity after nearly a year in office.
AfD’s Performance
The right-wing populist AfD nearly doubled its 2019 result of 9.7%, with exit polls showing 17.5-18% support. Party leader Alice Weidel expressed satisfaction, noting “We doubled our result, we can be satisfied.” However, they failed to reach their 20% target set by premier candidate Markus Frohnmaier.
Historic Transition
After 15 years in office, 77-year-old Winfried Kretschmann will step down as premier. He was the first Green party premier in Baden-Württemberg history and the longest-serving premier in the state’s history.
Regional Context
Baden-Württemberg is Germany’s third-largest state by area and population, serving as a key center for the automotive industry with headquarters for Mercedes-Benz and Porsche. The economy was the primary concern for voters, followed by climate and environmental issues.
