Adam Glapiński, President of the National Bank of Poland, stated during a press conference that interest rate hikes are probable given the current geopolitical situation and inflation risks.
Inflation as a Primary Driver
Interest rate hikes in Poland are probable in light of the current geopolitical situation, though not certain, according to Adam Glapiński, President of the National Bank of Poland and Chair of the Monetary Policy Council. The primary justifications for such moves would be inflation rising above the upper target limit or forecasts predicting such an increase.
Glapiński noted during a press conference that while rate cuts seem highly unlikely, all Council members allow for the possibility of hikes if inflation continues its upward trend.
Conditions for Future Hikes
The NBP chief emphasized that while hikes are probable, they are not certain because inflation remains within the target range. He also confirmed that the probability of interest rate hikes has increased since the Council’s previous meeting.
According to Glapiński, exceeding the upper inflation limit or internal bank projections indicating an inevitable rise in prices would be direct reasons to move in that direction. Even if inflation remains below the upper limit, if internal projections indicate an inevitable rise above that level, appropriate decisions will be made immediately.
Current Interest Rate Status
Yesterday, the Council decided to keep NBP interest rates at their current levels. These include a 3.75% annual reference rate, a 4.25% annual lombard rate, and a 3.25% annual deposit rate.
The annual rediscount rate stands at 3.80%, while the discount rate is set at 3.85%.