A United Surveys poll released by VPolska shows Civic Coalition leading with 30.8% support, but no single party can form a majority unless Grzegorz Braun joins the right‑wing bloc, potentially securing a government.
Survey for WP: Civic Coalition Ahead of PiS
VPolska published the results of the latest poll on political parties in Poland, conducted by United Surveys. The Civic Coalition received the highest support – 30.8% (up 1 percentage point compared to the study from 10–13 October). The second was Law and Justice – 26.7% (down 2.2 pp). Confederation – 11.9% (down 1 pp). Two more parties would enter the Sejm: Left, currently co‑ruling, would get 6.9% of votes (down 0.4 pp) and the Polish Crown Confederation of Grzegorz Braun – 6.4% (up 0.2 pp). Outside the Sejm would be: PSL with 4.8% (up 0.9 pp), The Together Party with 3.4% (up 1 pp) and Poland 2050 – 1.5% (down 0.1 pp).
Seat Simulation Highlights Braun’s Impact
The seat‑distribution simulation shows that no single party would secure the 231‑seat majority. According to the portal, the Civic Coalition would have 189 seats, Law and Justice 161, Confederation 60, Left 26, and the Polish Crown Confederation 24. A coalition of KO and Left would hold 215 seats, requiring an additional 16 members from the current opposition. In a scenario where PiS allies with Confederation, the total would be 221 seats—still short of a majority. If Grzegorz Braun joined these parties, the three right‑wing groups could govern with a majority of 245 seats.
2023 Parliament Election Results
On 15 October 2023, voters chose Law and Justice as the leading party with 35.38% of the vote. The Civic Coalition garnered 30.70%, Third Way 14.40%, Left 8.61%, and Confederation 7.16%. The combined result for the Civic Coalition, Third Way and Left was 248 seats, giving them a stable majority and enabling a coalition government.
Survey Methodology
The party poll was conducted by United Surveys for IBRiS, for VPolska using telephone and computer interviews (CATI/CAWI) on 24–26 October 2025, on a sample of 1,000 people.