Hungarian polling stations closed Sunday, with independent firms releasing last-minute pre-election surveys despite the absence of exit polls.
Polling Stations Closed, Surveys Released
Hungarian voters have finished casting their ballots in parliamentary elections, and independent polling agencies have published final pre-election surveys.
Hungarian journalist Szabolcs Panyi reported on platform X that, while official exit poll results will not be released immediately after voting ends, several independent and reliable organizations will publish their last pre-election surveys conducted just before the polls closed.
Survey Results Indicate Tight Race
Panyi cautioned that the survey results are under embargo until polling stations close and are consistent with earlier opinion polls, suggesting “no surprises” are expected.
Vote Counting and Initial Results
Hungary does not conduct exit polls. Vote counting began immediately after 7:00 PM local time when polling stations closed, with initial partial results – including the percentage of votes tallied – expected around 8:00 PM, according to the National Election Office (NVI).
Electoral System Overview
Hungary elects 199 deputies to the National Assembly, a unicameral parliament. 106 are elected in single-member districts, and the remaining 93 are chosen from national party lists.
In each district, the candidate with the most votes wins, even without a majority. Voters cast two ballots: one for a candidate in their district and another for a party or national minority list.
Voters abroad cast only one ballot, for a national party list.
Turnout and Thresholds
As of 5:00 PM, voter turnout reached 74.23%, with 5,587,935 people having voted. A 5% threshold applies to political parties, 10% to two-party coalitions, and 15% to lists of three or more parties.
The D’Hondt method is used to allocate seats from party lists. Five party lists and 12 Hungarian minority lists were registered to participate in the election, with the main contest expected between the Fidesz-KDNP coalition led by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and the TISZA party led by Péter Magyar.
Vote Counting and Foreign Ballots
Vote counting commenced immediately after 7:00 PM, with preliminary results expected around 8:00 PM, as reported by the NVI. No exit polls were conducted.
Results Timeline and Record Absentee Voting
Ballots cast abroad must arrive by the fourth day after the election and be counted by April 18th. A final result may not be known until Saturday if the leading lists receive similar vote totals. This year saw a record number of registered voters wishing to vote at foreign representations – over 90,000 – and a record number of postal voters, nearly 224,000, according to NVI data.
Candidates’ Evening Plans
Both main rivals will await results in Budapest. Orbán and Fidesz will host an election night event at the Balna complex on the Danube, while Magyar and TISZA members will gather at Batthyány Square, opposite the Hungarian Parliament.
Orbán’s Pledge to Respect Results
After casting his vote in Budapest, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán stated he would respect the election outcome and congratulate the winner if the opposition prevails. He emphasized the need to respect the people’s decision but added, “I came here to win.”
Magyar’s Confidence and Acceptance Conditions
TISZA leader Péter Magyar emphasized after voting that “no one seriously believes that TISZA will not win the election.” He noted that whether the party secures a simple or qualified two-thirds majority – needed for constitutional changes – remains open. He stated he would accept the results if no fraud significantly impacts the final outcome.
Final Surveys Favor Magyar
Final pre-election surveys indicate a clear victory for Magyar’s TISZA party. Surveys released after the 7:00 PM closure of polling stations show strong support for the opposition party.
A Median poll conducted between April 7-11 suggests TISZA could win up to 135 seats in the 199-seat parliament, while the far-right Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazank) falls below the 5% electoral threshold.
TISZA also leads in a pre-election survey by the 21 Research Center, with 55% support compared to 38% for Orbán’s Fidesz. Our Homeland Movement is near the electoral threshold. Translated into parliamentary seats, TISZA would receive 132, and Fidesz 61.
Vote counting began immediately after 7:00 PM when polling stations closed. The NVI announced that initial partial results should be available around 8:00 PM.