Hungary’s parliamentary elections on April 12th pit opposition leader Péter Magyar against Viktor Orbán, with the EU hoping for a pro-European and pro-Ukraine turn.
Anti-Ukrainian Course and Diplomatic Scandals
Viktor Orbán’s anti-Ukrainian stance and growing ties with Russia, coupled with diplomatic scandals – including admitting to providing Moscow with information during EU meetings and seeking closer ties with Russian energy firms – have alarmed many EU leaders.
They hope that Péter Magyar, if elected, will steer Hungary towards a more pro-European and pro-Ukrainian course.
Magyar: Not Necessarily a Pro-EU Turn
However, this outcome isn’t guaranteed. Attempts by Orbán to portray Magyar as a traitor supporting Brussels and Kyiv have been ineffective, as he isn’t perceived that way due to his actions and statements.
Magyar frequently echoes sentiments similar to those of Orbán, having opposed accelerating Ukraine’s EU accession and providing weapons to Kyiv. He has also suggested putting EU membership to a referendum.
Opposition to Ukraine Aid
TISZA voted against an EU loan for Ukraine in the European Parliament, despite Hungary not being obligated to financially contribute to the mechanism.
When Volodymyr Zelenskyy publicly clashed with Orbán over the loan, Magyar stated that “no foreign leader can threaten any Hungarian.”
Nationalist Priorities
Politico notes that Magyar is also a nationalist who prioritizes Budapest’s interests. He stated during a March 28th rally, “No one wants a pro-Ukrainian government.”
Brussels Anticipates Continuity as Well as Change
Brussels must prepare for both change and continuity in Hungarian policy, according to analysis. Some diplomats, including Ukrainian politicians, believe Magyar may soften his stance after winning the election, potentially due to the unlocking of billions of dollars in frozen EU funds.
One Ukrainian government advisor stated he is “a little more flexible – and that’s what we expect.”
A “Black Box” for the EU
However, Brussels remains uncertain about the potential successor to Orbán. “What would be his priority if he won the election? That’s also a puzzle for the EU,” Politico reports, with Tineke Strik, a Green MEP, calling him a “black box.”
Exploiting Diplomatic Scandals and Anti-Ukrainian Sentiment
Magyar has used the recent diplomatic scandal involving Orbán – the leak of conversations between Hungarian and Russian foreign ministers – to accuse the government of “open betrayal” in its dealings with the Kremlin.
He has avoided positive assessments of Ukraine, recognizing it would harm his electoral prospects, as deeply rooted anti-Ukrainian sentiments exist within Hungary.
Widespread Anti-Ukrainian Views
A Policy Solutions think tank survey from autumn 2023 found that half of Hungarians view Ukraine as dangerous, 64% oppose its EU accession, and 74% believe Hungary should not provide financial aid to Kyiv.
Politico notes that Zelenskyy is one of the most disliked politicians in Hungary, on par with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Provocations and Accusations
During celebrations of the 1848 Revolution, a Ukrainian flag was displayed among the crowd. Both sides accused each other of provocation, with Magyar and independent media claiming it was a Fidesz provocation, while the ruling party accused Magyar of being pro-Ukrainian.
Limited EU Commitments
The EU has reason for concern, as TISZA’s program offers only vague promises of “better cooperation” with EU institutions, lacking concrete commitments.
Magyar’s party members also abstained from voting to support Ursula von der Leyen during a vote of no confidence in the European Parliament, resulting in sanctions from the group’s leadership.