Recent polls in Hungary indicate a narrowing lead for Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party as the opposition Tisza gains momentum before Sunday’s parliamentary elections.
Rising Opposition Support
Independent polling centers are recording growing support for the opposition Tisza party ahead of Hungary’s parliamentary elections this Sunday. Government-affiliated polls still show greater support for Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party.
Recent public opinion research in Hungary has shown that the country’s political scene has been almost entirely dominated by two groups: the ruling Fidesz and the opposition Tisza.
Poll Data: Tisza Gains, Fidesz Declines
In the weeks leading up to the parliamentary elections, most independent polls showed support for Tisza ranging from 49 to 58 percent among decided voters, with support for Fidesz fluctuating between 35-38 percent. The research also indicated growing opposition support alongside a decline in the popularity of the ruling party.
Early April research from 21 Research Center showed Tisza with 56 percent support among decided voters, compared to 53 percent in early March. Fidesz received 37 percent support, a decrease from 39 percent three weeks prior. Among the general population, the Peter Magyar-led opposition party garnered 40 percent support, while Orbán’s party received 28 percent.
Tightening Race: Opposition Leads
Another poll conducted at the end of March and beginning of April by Zavecz Research showed Tisza increasing its lead to 13 percentage points among decided voters, up from 12 percentage points in a February poll. 51 percent of respondents supported Hungary’s main opposition party, while 38 percent supported the ruling Fidesz.
A Median poll published in late March indicated that Tisza received 58 percent support from decided voters, compared to 55 percent a month earlier, while Fidesz was supported by 35 percent of decided voters, the same as the previous month. Considering the general population, the main opposition party received 46 percent support, and Fidesz received 30 percent.
Government-Linked Polls Show Different Results
The government-affiliated Nezopont Institute determined Fidesz support at 46 percent and Tisza at 40 percent in mid-March. The Institute of the 21st Century also gave Fidesz 46 percent support, with 41 percent for Tisza.
Undecided Voters and Far-Right Presence
On average, between 20 and 26 percent of respondents in the polls still did not know how they would vote on April 12th. The only other party consistently exceeding or reaching the 5-percent electoral threshold is the far-right Mi Hazank.
Generational Divide in Voting Preferences
One trend noted in the research is generational polarization. Younger voters, especially those under 30, largely favor the opposition. The latest 21 Research Center poll showed 65 percent of voters under 30 supporting Tisza, while 14 percent support Fidesz.
Voters over 65 are more likely to choose Orbán’s party. In this demographic, according to polls from the Republikon Institute and Zavecz, Fidesz enjoys 49 percent support, while Tisza has 24 percent.
Shifting Expectations of Election Outcome
Beliefs about who would win the upcoming elections have also changed recently in favor of the opposition. In January, 44 percent of respondents believed Fidesz would win, compared to 37 percent for Tisza. However, in March, 47 percent believed Tisza would win, and 35 percent believed Fidesz would.
Concerns About Electoral Fraud
Research from the Publicus Institute showed that over half of Hungarians fear electoral fraud, and among those who fear fraud, two-thirds suspect the ruling Fidesz, while 15 percent suspect Tisza. The study also asked about attempts at foreign interference in the elections. 79 percent of respondents believed that other countries could secretly influence the elections, while 18 percent did not believe such a scenario.
Election Details
Hungarians will elect 199 deputies to the unicameral National Assembly (Orszaggyules) on Sunday, with 106 winning mandates in single-member districts and the remaining 93 being elected from national party lists. The term of office for parliamentarians is four years.