Recent polls indicate Hungary’s TISZA party, led by Péter Magyar, is gaining significant ground and could potentially overtake Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz in the upcoming April 12th parliamentary elections.
Polls Indicate Shifting Political Landscape
Journalists at 444.hu obtained internal research from the TISZA party, revealing a lead of up to 25 percentage points. This advantage extends beyond key electoral regions to include northern Hungary, traditionally a stronghold for Orbán’s Fidesz.
IDEA Intézet’s March survey corroborated this trend, giving TISZA a 12-point advantage (46% to 34%) among decided voters.
Recent Polling Data
In March, Median’s poll showed TISZA at 58% support among decided voters, compared to 35% for Fidesz. A Wednesday survey by 21 Research Center indicated 56% support for the opposition party and 37% for Fidesz.
Závecz Research (late March) reported TISZA at 51% and Fidesz at 38% among decided voters. Publicus Intézet (March 27-30) showed TISZA with 49% and Fidesz with 40%, while also noting increased voter turnout intention.
Media Control and Electoral System Concerns
The pro-government portal Origo, citing the Nézopont Institute, claims Fidesz leads with 46% to TISZA’s 40%.
Experts point to Viktor Orbán’s strong control over the Hungarian media landscape, with Fidesz directly or indirectly controlling approximately 80% of media assets. This control influences reporting, though even pro-Fidesz media show a narrow lead for the ruling party.
The current electoral system is also considered favorable to Fidesz, potentially requiring TISZA to achieve a 6-percentage-point national lead to secure a parliamentary majority.
Concerns Over Election Integrity
A Publicus Institute poll revealed that over half of Hungarians fear election fraud, and 79% suspect foreign interference in the elections. Only 18% do not believe in such interference.
TISZA’s Rapid Rise
TISZA (Respect and Freedom) has experienced rapid growth in support over the past six months, building its voter base after the 2024 European Parliament elections, where it secured nearly 30% of the vote. By November 2025, it had reached almost 50% support, consistently widening its lead over Fidesz.
Current research indicates TISZA dominates support among voters under 50 years old.
