Retired General Artur Jakubczyk discusses shifting military priorities, European reluctance, and the US approach to Iran and NATO allies.
US Base Relocation and Shifting NATO Focus
Closing airspace is considered an act of hostility, particularly given the concentration of US military bases in Germany, the Benelux countries, and the UK. Spain’s location near the Strait of Gibraltar is strategically vital for US operations in the Mediterranean and beyond, including potential operations against Iran.
The US demands allies spend at least 5% of GDP on defense, an idea originating not in the US but in Poland, with President Andrzej Duda initially proposing a 3% target to NATO.
European Disarmament and US Responsibility
Western Europe has significantly reduced its defense spending, even falling below 1% of GDP in countries like Belgium. Consequently, the US decided to shift more responsibility for European security to its allies, requiring increased financial and military contributions.
Post-WWII Base Origins and Eastern Shift
US and British bases in Germany were initially established after WWII to safeguard Europe from future conflict. However, NATO’s expansion eastward—including Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, the Baltic states, Finland, Sweden, Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina—has shifted the center of gravity.
This shift necessitates relocating military resources eastward to ensure the security of this region. Trump’s decision to withdraw from Germany aligns with a strategic move to focus on Eastern Europe, a positive development for Poland if the US forces remain within the NATO alliance.
Iran’s Degradation, Not Defeat
Trump’s claim of “winning” against Iran is debatable. While Iran’s military capabilities have been degraded, not destroyed, and key leaders neutralized, the US and Israel haven’t achieved a complete political victory. Iran continues to resist, and its core strength remains intact.
Lack of Consultation and European Non-Participation
Trump and Israel did not consult with NATO allies before initiating operations against Iran, leading to European reluctance to participate. Allies stated they did not feel responsible for the conflict.
Polish Interests and Regional Engagement
Poland’s primary concern is avoiding complete disengagement, given its cooperation with countries currently targeted by Iran, such as Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. Supporting these allies is in Poland’s national interest, potentially leading to lucrative contracts for its defense industry, particularly in air defense and counter-drone technology.
While Poland should avoid direct military involvement in Iran, it can contribute through its industry and economy, providing technology to neighboring countries under attack.
Trump’s Approach: Not Retaliation, But Reaction
Trump’s actions against Iran are not viewed as retaliation but as a response to the lack of complete success in achieving his objectives, similar to his attempts in Venezuela and Syria.
Gen. Jakubczyk’s Background
Gen. bryg. Artur Jakubczyk is a former head of the Strategy and Policy Intelligence Directorate of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
