Recent US and Israeli attacks on Iran, intended to halt its nuclear ambitions, have failed to significantly impede its progress, according to analysts.
US and Israel Launch Attacks on Iran
The United States and Israel began attacks on Iran on February 28th, with the stated goal of preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.
Limited Impact on Nuclear Program
Significant disruption to Iran’s nuclear program would require the destruction or removal of its remaining highly enriched uranium reserves, according to Reuters.
The strikes have only slightly delayed the construction of a nuclear weapon.
Attacks Focused on Conventional Targets
The latest US and Israeli attacks focused on conventional military targets within Iran, though Israel also struck several important nuclear facilities. US intelligence agencies previously assessed that Iran would likely be able to produce enough highly enriched uranium and build a weapon within three to six months.
Following attacks on nuclear complexes in Natanz, Fordo, and Isfahan in June 2025, US intelligence estimates extended this timeframe to approximately 9-12 months. Despite the destruction or severe damage to three Iranian uranium enrichment facilities, the International Atomic Energy Agency was unable to verify the location of approximately 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent.
Material Remains Secure Underground
Former US intelligence analyst Eric Brewer believes it is not surprising that estimates of the time needed for Tehran to build a nuclear bomb have not changed, as the recent US attacks were not targeted at facilities related to Iran’s nuclear program.
“As far as we know, Iran still possesses all of its nuclear material,” Brewer, now Vice President of the Nuclear Materials Research Program at the Nuclear Threat Initiative think tank, stated. “It is likely located deep underground, where American missiles cannot reach.”
Consideration of More Aggressive Options
In recent weeks, US officials have considered more dangerous operations to hinder Iran’s nuclear efforts, including ground raids to recover enriched uranium likely stored in a tunnel complex in Isfahan, Reuters reported.
Iran Denies Nuclear Ambitions
Iran has repeatedly rejected accusations of seeking a nuclear weapon, while simultaneously enriching uranium to levels far exceeding civilian applications. US intelligence agencies believe Tehran halted work on a nuclear warhead in 2003, though some experts and Israel contend it secretly preserved key elements of that program.