Following attacks that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, the US denies regime change was the goal, while Israel vows to eliminate any successor from the ‘terrorist regime’.
Power Succession Dynamics
The Assembly of Experts, an 88-member body of senior Shia clerics, selects Iran’s Supreme Leader. Analysts like Vali Nasr of Johns Hopkins University have long predicted Mojtaba Khamenei as the planned successor. His selection would signify a more radical faction within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) gaining power.
Modjtaba Khamenei, 56, is known for decades of close ties to the IRGC, serving as a key liaison between his father and the corps’ command, according to Iran International. He is widely viewed as an architect of the repressive system used to crush anti-government protests, a claim dating back to at least 2009, per analyst Arash Azizi.
Reaction to Nomination Would Be “Negative and Violent”
IRGC pressure reportedly advocates for Mojtaba Khamenei, citing his expertise in security and military coordination. Tehran analyst Mehdi Rahmati told the New York Times this makes him the “wisest choice” currently, but predicted any nomination would trigger a “negative and violent” reaction, as both supporters and opponents see him as his father’s political heir.
Politician Abdolreza Davari, close to Mojtaba, disputes this, claiming he is “extremely progressive” and will sideline hardliners, though this view contrasts with others.
Ace Up His Sleeve
The New York Times notes Mojtaba’s potential succession could spark criticism that Iran’s revolutionary system has evolved into dynastic rule. Iran International highlights a significant advantage: as the slain ayatollah’s son and heir, Mojtaba could credibly decide to continue or halt the war against the US, Israel, and Arab neighbors. Continuing the fight could be framed as vengeance, while ending it might be justified as a legitimate religious and cultural decision by the heir, avoiding perceptions of external humiliation or surrender.