New poll shows Civic Coalition leads with 31.2%, PiS steady at 27.3%, with unexpected results in lower rankings.
IBRiS Poll Results
According to an IBRiS poll for Onet, if parliamentary elections were held in January, 31.2% of respondents would vote for the Civic Coalition (KO), and 27.3% for the Law and Justice party (PiS). These results are comparable to those both parties recorded in November’s poll.
Third place went to Confederation (12.8%, down 1.3 percentage points). Fourth place was taken by Nowa Lewica with a result of 6.8% (nearly identical to November’s), and fifth was the Confederation of the Polish Crown of Grzegorz Braun (6.6%, down 0.7 percentage points). Below the electoral threshold were PSL (4.9%), Razem Party (2.8%), and Poland 2050 (1.4%). Undecided voters constitute 6.2%.
Ruling Coalition Without Majority
The above results mean that KO could send 184 MPs to the Sejm, PiS – 168, Confederation – 65, Nowa Lewica – 23, and the Confederation of the Polish Crown – 20. The poll was conducted on January 20-21 on a nationwide sample of 1,100 people using the CATI method (telephone survey).
OGB Poll
This week, the OGB polling firm also published its poll results. KO received 39.04%, PiS – 28.47%, Confederation – 12.25%, and the Confederation of the Polish Crown – 9.64%. Other parties were below the electoral threshold. With such results, KO would send 215 MPs to the Sejm, PiS – 149, Confederation – 55, and the Confederation of the Polish Crown – 41.
This means that in practice, joint lists of KO, PSL and PL2050 as well as Nowa Lewica and Razem Party would increase the electoral possibilities of the current ruling camp by only 12 seats combined.
Parliamentary Elections 2023
In the 2023 parliamentary elections, Law and Justice won 35.38% support. Then, 30.7% of Poles voted for the Civic Coalition. 14.4% of voters supported the Third Way (a coalition of Poland 2050 of Szymon Hołownia and PSL). Left (8.61%) and Confederation (7.16%) also sent MPs to the Sejm.
Law and Justice then sent 194 MPs to the Sejm, KO – 157, Third Way – 65, Left – 26, and Confederation – 18.
