A new poll shows Koalicja Obywatelska leading PiS, but a coalition with Lewica wouldn’t provide a parliamentary majority.
Party Poll: KO Leads PiS
United Surveys conducted a party poll for Wirtualna Polska from January 16-18. The survey showed that if parliamentary elections were held in mid-January, Koalicja Obywatelska would win with 31.8% support. Support for KO increased by 0.9 percentage points compared to the poll conducted from January 2-4. Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (PiS) came in second, with 26.2% support (an increase of 0.3 percentage points).
Konfederacja Ahead of Grzegorz Braun’s Party and Nowa Lewica
Konfederacja came in third, with support from 14% of respondents (an increase of 2.8 percentage points). Also making it to the Sejm would be Konfederacja Korony Polskiej Grzegorza Brauna (7.1%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points) and Nowa Lewica (5.9%, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points). Below the 5% threshold were PSL (4.8%), Razem (2.7%), and Polska 2050 (2.3%).
Division of Seats in the Sejm
Based on the poll results and a calculator developed by Prof. Jarosław Flis from Jagiellonian University, Wirtualna Polska conducted a simulation of the division of parliamentary seats: A coalition of KO with Lewica would not provide a parliamentary majority, as these two parties would have only 209 seats combined. However, a coalition involving PiS, Konfederacja, and Konfederacja Korony Polskiej Brauna would ensure a majority, giving a total of 251 seats.
Opinia24 Poll Shows Similar Results
Results from a poll by Opinia24 were also recently published. Koalicja Obywatelska received the highest support (30.9%), followed by PiS (25.8%), and Konfederacja (12.8%). The others were: Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (7.4%), Nowa Lewica (7.1%), Polska 2050 (4%), PSL (3.3%), and Razem (2.7%). This poll was conducted on January 12-14 and included 1001 adult Poles.