Eroding US trust prompts European nations, including France and Germany, to explore independent nuclear options ahead of Macron’s pivotal address.
Crisis of Trust Drives European Nuclear Debate
Years of relying on the US nuclear umbrella are ending. European nations, prompted by Donald Trump’s questioning of NATO Article 5 commitments and threats like seizing Greenland, are actively discussing a European nuclear deterrent. Countries such as Sweden, Norway, Germany, and the Netherlands acknowledge these talks. Norway’s Prime Minister Jonas Gahr stated Europeans must discuss a European nuclear deterrent. The urgency increases with the expiration of the New START treaty and rising threats from Russia and China, which are expanding their nuclear arsenals.
France and Britain Play Central Roles
While the US nuclear umbrella remains essential, Europe seeks additional layers of security against Russia. France, possessing an arsenal independent of US technology, is seen as the logical foundation for a European system. Politico reports unofficial discussions about non-nuclear states eventually developing their own weapons. Britain also possesses a nuclear arsenal (approximately 225 warheads) and is considered a key element, though its system, while operationally independent, relies on US technology and is currently sea-based only. London is considering restoring an air component using US jets. Britain formally distances itself from a new joint system, citing NATO protection, but France and Britain recently signed a nuclear cooperation agreement.
Macron’s Upcoming “Pivotal” Speech
President Emmanuel Macron is discussing a new nuclear doctrine with partners like Poland and Germany, potentially extending European deterrence, for instance, by stationing Rafale aircraft. He is set to deliver a major speech on nuclear doctrine this week. Journalists, citing sources, describe the address as a “turning point, a pivotal moment,” detailing how France might share its deterrent while emphasizing presidential authority over the decision.
Expiry of US-Russian Nuclear Treaty
The Russian-American New START treaty on strategic arms control expired on February 5th. Experts warn its absence increases the risk of a nuclear arms race. The treaty, signed by Russia and the US, limited nuclear warheads by 2018 and automatically extended in 2021. No agreement on a new extension has been reached. Vladimir Putin had proposed talks with Donald Trump, who called the idea “good” but no further progress followed. Any new US treaty effort is likely to include China, which analysts believe will possess a significant arsenal within several years.