Peter Magyar’s TISZA party secured a majority in Hungary’s parliament, defeating Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz and signaling a potential shift in the nation’s political landscape.
Orbán’s History of Scapegoating and a Weak Opposition
Roli, a 36-year-old Hungarian who recently moved to Amsterdam, attributes TISZA’s success to widespread dissatisfaction with Orbán’s policies and a historically ineffective opposition.
He notes that Orbán’s Fidesz consistently identified scapegoats, while the opposition consistently failed to present a compelling alternative.
Magyar’s Rise and the Scandal Surrounding Pardons
Roli initially knew Peter Magyar as the husband of former Justice Minister Judit Varga, but his profile rose during a scandal involving pardons related to child abuse cases in children’s homes, which led to the resignation of President Katalin Novak.
Voter Motivation and Electoral System Concerns
Roli voted for TISZA because he believes the current situation in Hungary is unsustainable, citing concerns about foreign policy and a flawed electoral system that allows a party with around 50% support to achieve a constitutional majority.
TISZA’s Landslide Victory and Challenges Ahead
TISZA secured 141 seats in the 199-seat parliament, defeating Orbán’s Fidesz, which received 52 seats. The far-right Our Homeland Movement will also enter parliament with six seats.
Experts acknowledge that while the victory presents a real opportunity for change, implementing it will be a significant challenge, given Orbán’s placement of loyalists within numerous institutions.
A Dismissive View of the Previous Opposition
Roli states, “In recent years, the opposition was a joke.” He believes TISZA easily absorbed the opposition because it was widely disliked, lacking proactivity and often defending indefensible positions.
The Decline of the Hungarian Left
According to Roli, the left in Hungary is virtually nonexistent, lacking people, talent, and relevant issues. He notes that Fidesz portrays TISZA as a left-wing party, capitalizing on 16 years of negative framing of the left as a force leading to national decline.
Corruption and the System of Connections
Roli highlights a pervasive system of corruption where loyalty is rewarded with opportunities for enrichment. He explains that connections are essential for even basic endeavors, such as opening a tobacco shop or advancing within a ministry.
He points to price controls on essential goods as an example of the system’s flaws, arguing that while appearing beneficial, they ultimately shift the cost onto consumers.
Similar Backgrounds, Diverging Paths
Both Orbán and Magyar come from the same conservative political background, but Magyar has been critical of the system built by Orbán, citing the unexplained enrichment of political elites, abuse of power, and the fueling of social divisions.
Uncertainty and the Role of Propaganda
Roli believes it’s too early to definitively assess the differences between Orbán and Magyar, emphasizing the need to observe their governance with a two-thirds majority.
He also points to Magyar’s pro-EU and pro-NATO stance, as well as voter fatigue with the government’s relentless propaganda, as key factors in the election outcome.
Scapegoating and Anti-Ukrainian Sentiment
Roli notes Fidesz’s consistent strategy of identifying enemies – Brussels, LGBTQ+ individuals, George Soros, immigrants, Ukrainians – and alleges that during the campaign, Fidesz falsely claimed TISZA’s victory would lead to Hungarians being sent to fight in Ukraine.
He believes this anti-Ukrainian narrative is more effective than anti-EU propaganda.
A Desire for Change and a Return Home?
Roli’s move to Amsterdam wasn’t primarily driven by financial gain, as he was already earning a good salary. He believes Hungary under Orbán created a society where success required moving to the capital.
He suggests that the new government represents a worthwhile experiment and leaves open the possibility of returning to Hungary in the future.