New poll shows majority in US, UK, Canada and France believe global conflict more likely in next five years.
Rising Perceptions of Global Conflict
A new poll for POLITICO is clear: a decisive majority of respondents believe the world has become more dangerous than a year ago. Americans, Canadians, British and French people more frequently than in 2025 assess that the outbreak of World War III in the next five years is “probable” or “very probable”. The most marked increase in pessimistic moods is seen in the UK – 43 percent of respondents believe a global conflict could occur by 2031 (compared to 30 percent a year earlier). In the US, this percentage increased from 38 to 46 percent. Among the five surveyed countries, only in Germany does the majority opinion hold that a world war within five years is unlikely.
NATO and International Tensions
Leaders of Alliance states are preparing for further talks on security, including at the Munich Security Conference. NATO faces today a dual challenge: on the one hand, there is a full-scale war by Russia against Ukraine, on the other hand, the United States is conducting military operations in several regions of the world, notes POLITICO. Russia is identified as the greatest threat to peace in Europe. In Canada, however, the United States is perceived as the main risk to security. In France, Germany and the UK, the United States occupies second place among the threats identified – ahead of China. At least one third of respondents in the US, UK, France and Canada believe that nuclear weapons could be used within five years.
More Money for Defense? Yes, But…
The majority of respondents in the UK, France, Germany and Canada declare support for increasing defense spending, with the strongest support in the UK and Canada. However, a problem arises when respondents learn that higher spending would mean higher taxes, greater national debt and cuts in other budget areas, as support clearly drops. In France in 2025, 40 percent of respondents were willing to support increased defense spending despite the costs; in 2026, this percentage fell to 28 percent. In Germany, support decreased from 37 to 24 percent. In Germany, defense spending found itself nearly at the bottom of the list of preferred directions for public money allocation – nearly all other goals were rated higher except foreign aid.
European Army and Mandatory Military Service
The survey also showed limited support for the idea of creating a permanent EU army under one command, a concept being considered by the European Commission. In Germany, 22 percent of respondents support it, in France 17 percent. Meanwhile, mandatory military service enjoys relatively greater interest, as nearly half of respondents in Germany and France declare support for it.