Since August, a new Ukrainian law permitting men under 23 to leave the country has triggered a mass exodus of approximately 1,600 men daily, with Germany reporting surges in arrivals.
Mass departures from Ukraine
Polish border‑guard data cited by The Telegraph show that since September 98,500 men aged 18 to 22 have fled Ukraine, roughly 1,600 each day. Prior to August, rules only allowed exit for men 18 to 60 and even those not conscripted. Zelensky amended the law to permit men under 23 to leave, part of a recruiting policy shift that lowered compulsory service age from 27 to 25 amid fears of manpower shortages on the front. The move was meant to encourage return and prevent families from sending children abroad before 18 to avoid conscription. Before the amendment, 45,300 men had left between January and the end of August.
Germany Unhappy With Migration Flow
German politicians reacted negatively. By mid‑September weekly arrivals in Germany rose from 19 to over 1,000, and by October were 1,400‑1,800 per week. The increase pressured Chancellor Merkel, especially from the far right. Hardt, head of foreign policy for the CDU, told Politico that while Ukraine has its own decisions, the recent law has made migration rise and Germany must address it.
Ukraine’s Human Resource Losses
According to the U.S. Center for Strategic and International Studies, Ukraine could have lost 60,000–100,000 soldiers at the war’s onset, and officials noted Kiev may not have done enough to offset growing manpower gaps. Ukrainian Pravda reports that since the war began, more than 250,000 instances of voluntary desertion or leaving units have been recorded. Prosecutor data shows 235,000 cases of voluntary unit departure and 54,000 desertion cases since 2022, with a fourfold rise in voluntary departures and a twofold rise in deserters in the last year alone. Information on returning soldiers is unavailable. The phenomenon may be linked to regulations that allow avoidance of punishment if a soldier voluntarily leaves once and then returns. Less than 1% of deserters have received prison sentences since the war began.
