Poland’s Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) forecasts a cool start to the May Day weekend, with temperatures gradually rising.
IMGW Forecast for May Day Weekend
Several days ago, synoptic models suggested a cold May Day weekend, with temperatures reaching 6-11 degrees Celsius during the day, well below normal, and a risk of nighttime frosts.
IMGW spokesperson and synoptician Agnieszka Prasek stated that this signal partially persists, especially at the beginning of the holiday. However, the latest models indicate a gradual improvement in conditions throughout the long weekend.
Forecast Correction and Warming Trend
Agnieszka Prasek noted a clear correction in the forecasts, suggesting warming in the latter part of the May Day weekend. The beginning of the holiday (April 30th – May 1st) will remain cool, with temperatures around 8-12 degrees Celsius, and locally lower in the north.
In subsequent days, especially from May 3rd-4th, there is an increasing chance of temperatures rising to around 12-15 degrees Celsius, and locally even 15-18 degrees Celsius, mainly in the south and west of the country.
Reasons for the Forecast Change
The change is due to baric conditions. Initially, Poland will be under the influence of low-pressure systems and colder air masses from the north. However, in the later part of the May Day weekend, a high-pressure system and the influx of milder air from the west or southwest may have a greater impact.
Summary and Ongoing Monitoring
In summary, the May Day weekend is not expected to be consistently warm, but it won’t be entirely cold either. The most likely scenario is a cool start and a gradual improvement in temperatures in the second part of the long weekend. The situation remains dynamic, and forecasts may still change, so it is worth monitoring updates on meteo.imgw.pl.
