A fresh IBRiS poll released on October 9 finds the Civic Coalition ahead at 30.5%, indicating that holding parliamentary elections on Oct. 15 would topple the coalition.
Survey Methodology and Key Figures
IBRiS conducted telephone interviews (CATI) between October 8 and 9 with a sample of 1,100 adult Poles. The Civic Coalition received 30.5% of the vote, an increase of 2 percentage points compared with the August survey.
Projected Seat Count for Each Party
If elections were held today, the Civic Coalition would carry 176 seats, the Law and Justice party 170, Confederation 78, New Left 23, and the Polish Crown Confederation 13. Parties that couldn’t clear the electoral threshold would get none.
Implications for the Oct. 15 Coalition
The projected seat distribution shows all coalition partners falling short of the majority, meaning the coalition formed on October 15 would dissolve under such results.
Comparison to 2023 Election Outcomes
In the 2023 parliamentary elections, Law and Justice received 35.38%, Civic Coalition 30.7%, Third Way 14.4%, Left 8.61%, and Confederation 7.16%. This translated into 194, 157, 65, 26, and 18 seats, respectively.
Currently, the Law and Justice caucus holds 188 seats, Civic Coalition 157, Polish People’s Party 32, Polish 2050 30, Left 21, Confederation 16, Together 5, Free Republicans 4, and Polish Crown Confederation 3. Four members remain unaffiliated.
