A December 1‑3, 2025 mixed‑mode poll by Opinia24 shows the Civic Coalition falling 1.3 points, while Law and Justice drops 2.3 points, reshaping parliamentary prospects.
Poll Results
In a mixed‑mode survey conducted 1–3 December 2025 by Opinia24, the Civic Coalition received 31.7% support, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous month. Law and Justice fell 2.3 points to 25.1%, while the Confederation gained 2.0 points to 14.6%.
Among respondents, 6.6% indicated support for the Left (up 0.3 points) and 6.2% for Confederation Royal Poland (up 0.3 points), meaning these two parties would also cross the electoral threshold. Parties falling short included the Together Party with –4.6%, Poland 2050 at –2.8%, and the Polish People’s Party at –1.2%.
Only 1% said they would vote for a different party, and 6.2% answered “hard to say.” The results reflect the views of 509 committed voters out of a representative sample of 1,000 adult Poles.
Two Additional Parties Would Enter the Sejm
According to the poll, the Left (6.6%) and Confederation Royal Poland (6.2%) would surpass the threshold, granting them parliamentary representation. Conversely, the Together Party (–4.6%), Poland 2050 (–2.8%), and PSL (–1.2%) would not secure seats.
Earlier Poll
A November 21‑22 survey by IBRiS for Rzeczpospolita reported the Civic Coalition at 30.4%, Law and Justice at 27.1%, and Confederation at 16.1%. The Left (7.2%) and Confederation Royal Poland (5.1%) would also enter the Sejm.
Other parties remained below the threshold: Together Party 3.9%, Polish People’s Party 3.2%, and Poland 2050 1.7%. Five point two percent of respondents were unsure whom they would vote for. The survey estimated a turnout of 58%.