A latest survey conducted 6‑8 October shows the Civic Coalition leading with 30.8% support, putting Tusk’s coalition partners at risk.
Civic Coalition Leads in Latest Poll
This 6‑8 October study of 1,000 adults, commissioned by TVN24 and run by Opinia24, asked respondents who they would vote for in a hypothetical election on the following Sunday. The Civic Coalition secured 30.8% of the declared votes, up 2.2 points from the previous month; the ruling Law and Justice party trailed with 28.4%; the Kaczyński‑aligned party lost 0.2 points, and the Confederation earned 15%, unchanged from September.
Trouble for Coalition Partners
Only two parties among the four that currently constitute the governing coalition would cross the 5% electoral threshold: Left (Lewica) with 5.4% (down 0.2 points) and the Polish Crown Confederation with 5.3% (down 1.4 points). Below the threshold were Together with 4.5% (up 0.6), Poland 2050 at 3% (up 0.1), agrarian PSL at 1.3% (down 0.2), while 0.4% voted for “other party” (up 0.2). Six and one‑half per cent of respondents were undecided, a drop of 0.9 points from September.
Earlier September Poll by United Surveys
An earlier September poll from 26‑28 September by United Surveys for Wirtualna Polska, also using CATI and CAWI techniques, recorded the Civic Coalition at 30%, Law and Justice at 28.5%, Confederation 14.7%, and Left 7% (entering parliament). The remaining parties received: Polish Crown Confederation 4.1%, Together 2.2%, and Poland 2050 2.0%; undecided respondents made up 6.8%.
