A new IBRiS poll for Polsat News reveals a continued decline in support for the Law and Justice party, with current figures showing the party far trailing its 2023 electoral performance.
Shifting Electoral Landscape
In the latest IBRiS survey, the Civic Coalition (KO) recorded 29.3% support, down from 31.1% in March. Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (PiS) holds second place with 23.7%, a one-percentage-point decrease, while the Confederation follows with 13.4%.
If elections were held in early June, the New Left would secure 8.1% and the Confederation of the Polish Crown 8%. Falling below the electoral threshold are the Polish People’s Party (4.2%), the Razem Party (2.9%), and Poland 2050 (1.5%), with 8.9% of respondents remaining undecided.
Historical Comparison and Internal Shifts
The poll was conducted between May 29 and June 2, 2026, using CATI methodology on a representative sample of 1,000 individuals. For perspective, in the 2023 parliamentary elections, PiS garnered 35.38% of the vote, while the Civic Coalition received 30.7%.
Since 2023, PiS has lost approximately 11 percentage points of support. Much of this voter base has migrated toward Grzegorz Braun’s Confederation of the Polish Crown. Furthermore, the anticipated boost from naming Przemysław Czarnek as a prime ministerial candidate has yet to materialize.
Alternative Data: The OGB Survey
A separate study by the Nationwide Research Group (OGB) from late May indicates that 38.89% of respondents would support KO, 27.03% PiS, and 11.76% the Confederation. Results for other parties include 9.32% for the Confederation of the Polish Crown and 5.20% for the New Left.
Projections based on the OGB data suggest the current ruling coalition would lack a majority, with seat distribution estimated at 214 for KO, 143 for PiS, 53 for the Confederation, 43 for the Confederation of the Polish Crown, and 7 for the New Left.