A recent IBRiS survey for “Rzeczpospolita,” conducted on May 22-23, indicates that while the Civic Coalition remains ahead at 30.9 percent, its support has dropped, and the Law and Justice party has grown.
The Fading Czarnek Effect
The Civic Coalition saw its support fall to 30.9 percent from 32 percent in the previous April survey. Conversely, the Law and Justice (PiS) party rose to 25.4 percent from 23.2 percent. Observers note a lack of the anticipated “Czarnek effect,” as the nomination of Przemysław Czarnek as the party’s candidate for prime minister in the 2027 parliamentary elections has not translated into a significant surge in support for the faction led by Jarosław Kaczyński.
Current Standing of Other Political Entities
Konfederacja maintains its third-place position with 12.5 percent, though it would require the support of Grzegorz Braun’s Konfederacja Korony Polskiej to potentially govern with PiS. The Left follows closely at 8.4 percent. The survey notes that PSL, Razem, and Poland 2050 would remain below the parliamentary threshold, while 5.1 percent of respondents remained undecided.
Political Arithmetic and Statistical Variance
Prof. Jarosław Flis of Jagiellonian University suggests that if key parties from the former October 15 coalition fail to reach the Sejm, the right-wing could seize power. However, the expert emphasizes that current fluctuations remain within the margin of error, with the total support for ruling parties at 45 percent compared to 46.8 percent for the three right-wing groups.
Czarnek on PiS Ratings
During an appearance on “Rymanowski Live,” Przemysław Czarnek stated that his primary goal was to halt the downward trend in PiS ratings. He suggested that internal party disputes and interviews by figures like Mateusz Morawiecki have hindered progress, distracting the public from the broader political reality.
US Military Presence and Diplomatic Tensions
The survey coincides with public discourse surrounding potential changes to the US military presence in Poland. Recent uncertainty followed reports that the US Department of Defense halted the arrival of a tank brigade, only for Donald Trump to later claim he would send five thousand additional troops. The Ministry of National Defense maintains that the delay is merely a logistical issue, while military insiders suggest the situation remains officially unclear.