New polling shows Koalicja Obywatelska leading PiS in January election simulation, but both major parties would fall short of a parliamentary majority.
United Surveys Poll Results
A survey conducted by United Surveys for Wirtualna Polska from January 16-18 showed Koalicja Obywatelska leading with 31.8% support, a 0.9 percentage point increase from the previous poll. Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (PiS) followed with 26.2% support, a 0.3 percentage point increase.
Konfederacja ranked third with 14% support, a significant 2.8 percentage point increase. Two other parties would enter parliament: Konfederacja Korony Polskiej Grzegorza Brauna with 7.1% support and Nowa Lewica with 5.9% support.
Parties Below Electoral Threshold
Parties failing to cross the 5% electoral threshold included PSL with 4.8% support, Razem with 2.7% support, and Polska 2050 with 2.3% support.
Parliamentary Seat Simulation
Based on the poll results and a calculator developed by Professor Jarosław Flis of Jagiellonian University, a simulation showed that a coalition between Koalicja Obywatelska and Lewica would not secure a parliamentary majority, holding only 209 seats together.
In contrast, a coalition involving PiS, Konfederacja, and Konfederacja Korony Polskiej Brauna would secure a majority with 251 seats.
Opinia24 Poll Results
A separate poll by Opinia24 conducted January 12-14 also showed Koalicja Obywatelska leading with 30.9% support, followed by PiS with 25.8% support and Konfederacja with 12.8% support.
The poll also showed Konfederacja Korony Polskiej with 7.4% support, Nowa Lewica with 7.1% support, Polska 2050 with 4% support, PSL with 3.3% support, and Razem with 2.7% support.
