A mid‑November survey found 44% of Poles expect Karol Nawrocki to win the 2030 presidential race, revealing sharp political divides ahead of the 2025 election.
Strong Support for Nawrocki in 2030
United Surveys by IBRiS, conducted for Wirtualna Polska, reported that 43.8% of respondents are convinced that Karol Nawrocki will be re‑elected in 2030. Of these, 20.7% are fully confident and 23.1% believe it is very likely, while 22.5% remained uncertain.
Political Divides Exposed
Among supporters of the current coalition, 71% think Nawrocki will not win again, with 47% strongly rejecting the possibility. In contrast, 76% of opposition voters believe the incumbent will stay in power, almost half of them firmly convinced.
The remaining 56% of voters expressed no clear opinion, highlighting widespread uncertainty.
Results of the 2025 Election
In June 2025, Nawrocki defeated Rafał Trzaskowski in the second round, securing 50.89% of the vote with a turnout of 71.63%.
The Supreme Court validated the election despite more than 54,000 protests, only 21 of which were deemed credible; the court ruled they did not affect the outcome.