Polish analyst Anna Maria Dyner argues a truly fair peace for Ukraine would require Russia’s full withdrawal and reparations—a scenario she deems impossible given Russia’s unwillingness and geopolitical realities.
A Truly Fair Peace is Unlikely
A fair settlement would mean Russia withdrawing completely from Ukraine and paying reparations, says PISM analyst Anna Maria Dyner. She stresses Russia would not consent voluntarily; forcing it would require total isolation and loss of nuclear capability—a scenario she deems impossible, even with China’s stance.
Negotiations Far From Final
Since the preliminary peace plan was released last week, media and social platforms have spawned speculation, accusations of a repeat of the Jalta conference, a “Munich 2.0”, and allegations of betrayal. Dyner urges readers to set aside premature assessments of Poland’s role, noting the final talks and signing are still long away and the current stage is pure speculation.
Ukraine’s Military Weakness
According to Dyner, Ukraine’s armed forces are weakening, lacking personnel, inefficient recruitment, and a dysfunctional command system. Without significant reforms—changes that seem unlikely among Ukrainians—Ukraine cannot halt Russian advances or recover lost territory, limiting its impact on the peace process.
Western Support Limitations
Poland and other Western states provide aid to Ukraine but balance it against domestic burdens. The West continues to buy Russian liquefied gas and supplies limited advanced weaponry, while sanctions enforcement is weak and public reaction to peacekeeping force suggestions is muted, making it difficult to force Russia to accept terms.
Russia’s Imperial Ambitions
Dyner emphasizes that Russia pursued the war not for territorial gains but to establish political control over Ukraine and shift regional power balances. She views the tentative peace as far from a Kremlin victory; Ukraine will likely retain independence and a pro‑European orientation, but this outcome depends on European states’ willingness to support – without making Ukraine feel abandoned.
Future Implications
Should a peace agreement be signed, the key question will be Russia’s future conduct. As it still retains imperial ambitions, it could attempt renewed aggression. Preventing such actions will be the main concern, rather than Ukraine’s potential territorial concessions.