Phase Zero: ISW Accuses Russia of Sabotage in Poland, Warns of Dangerous Strategy

Polish authorities allege Russian special services sabotaged railway tracks between Lublin and Warsaw, marking the start of Russia’s ‘Phase Zero’ destabilization campaign, Prime Minister Tusk said on 18 November.

Sabotage Enters Russian Destabilization Strategy

Polish authorities link sabotage of railway tracks between Lublin and Warsaw to Russian special services. Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on 18 November that two Ukrainian citizens were tasked by Russians to carry out attacks on two sections of the line. The damage near Mików was allegedly carried out with explosives. According to information provided by Tusk, the operatives entered Poland via Belarus in the autumn of this year and returned there after the action. Polish officials say this is not an isolated case but part of a broader strategy.

ISW Warns of Kremlin’s Phase Zero Operations

For months, experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have warned that the Kremlin is conducting “Phase Zero” operations in Europe—preparatory actions before open conflict. These include cyber attacks, disinformation campaigns, provocations in recordings, and sabotage of critical infrastructure such as the railway sabotage carried out in Poland. The goal is not immediate war but systematic undermining of the sense of security and readiness of Western states. NATO chief Mark Rutte stated at the end of October that Russia had entered the first stage of preparations—Phase Zero.

Critical Infrastructure Targeted

The sabotage on tracks between Lublin and Warsaw is one of the most alarming signals in recent months. Rail is a key logistical element for both civilian and military transport. Such acts could affect a country’s defensive capability. Specialists say the Russian “Phase Zero” strategy is to choose targets of operational and symbolic significance—such as energy networks, ports, communications, and now railway infrastructure. A single incident can provoke a psychological effect far greater than the scale of the attack itself.

Investigations Continue

Special services coordinator spokesperson Jacek Dobrzyński said intensive operational and reconnaissance actions, including arrests and securing and analyzing tracks, are underway on the Warsaw–Lublin route near Mika and under Puławy. He also announced first arrests.

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