Poland’s ruling Law and Justice party faces declining support amid internal conflicts, an aging electorate, and right-wing competition.
Polling Decline
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (PiS) is currently recording its lowest approval ratings in years. In a recent Opinia24 poll, 24.5% of respondents supported the party led by Jarosław Kaczyński, while an IBRiS poll for “Rzeczpospolita” showed only 23.3% support, and a January CBOS poll recorded just 20.4%.
This marks a significant decline from the party’s peak popularity of over 40%. The party’s highest result came in the 2019 European Parliament elections, where 45.38% of voters supported PiS candidates. Even in the 2023 parliamentary elections, the party achieved a relatively strong result of 35.38%.
Unresolved Structural Problems
Despite Karol Nawrocki’s unexpected victory in last year’s presidential election, PiS has not regained its former popularity. According to political scientist Dr. hab. Rafał Chwedoruk from the University of Warsaw, PiS won the presidential election unexpectedly and skillfully but failed to resolve any of its structural problems that had been accumulating for years.
Even after their 2019 triumph, PiS activists were aware of these issues. The 2023 elections fully revealed these problems, and the party delayed internal accountability. Spontaneous eruptions of factional conflicts became visible, which are natural in the context of electoral defeat and structural crisis.
Electorate and Ideological Challenges
Chwedoruk identifies three main problems facing PiS. The first relates to the structure of their electorate. The party’s highest support comes from the oldest voters. In the 2023 parliamentary elections exit poll, PiS enjoyed 44.2% support among voters aged 50-59 and 53% among those over 60, compared to less than 15% among the youngest voters (18-29).
The second issue is the unprecedented divergence between PiS’s main promoted content and the way many Poles, especially young and middle-aged people, think about the world. We are witnessing a generational change and changing living conditions for many citizens. The way of communication has transformed, and we are observing the evolution of contemporary culture.
Failed Reforms and Social Programs
Paradoxically, the social programs introduced by PiS have led to the stabilization of living standards for many less affluent supporters, causing them to lose interest in the party’s agenda. Despite being aware of these problems, PiS has not initiated a reform process similar to what began after their 2011 electoral defeat, which resulted in the Duda-Szydło duo.
Leadership Succession and Right-Wing Competition
The third problem PiS faces is the unresolved issue of leadership succession. A new development is the emergence for the first time of significant right-wing competition, incomparably stronger than previously from groups like the League of Polish Families or smaller conservative groups.
Grzegorz Braun, operating independently, is particularly significant in this context. Konfederacja was previously targeting different voters than traditional PiS supporters. However, Konfederacja Korony Polskiej and Grzegorz Braun directly targeted PiS’s core support base, primarily middle-aged and older men from the Lublin and Podkarpackie regions.
Internal Party Conflicts
PiS’s difficult situation is further complicated by internal factional battles. The “harcerze” (scouts) – individuals centered around former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, who favor a more centrist approach – are pulling against the “maślarze” (milkers) who advocate for a sharper right turn.
Speculations about Mateusz Morawiecki potentially leaving the party exist, but this scenario currently seems unlikely. Most political analysts believe that internal conflicts won’t lead to a split, as everyone is aware that a dissolution of PiS would mean the end of the party, and Morawiecki has no clear alternative political direction.
International Positioning Challenges
Chwedoruk emphasizes how complicated PiS’s situation is when viewed from an international perspective. The party presents itself as Polish Trumpists, yet for years it has implemented the agenda of American Democrats, for whom Russia was the main negative reference point.
Grzegorz Braun exploited that PiS was deviating from the views and interests of some of its voters regarding Ukrainian issues. He also leveraged that Konfederacja had shifted to the center on this matter. In this way, PiS found itself in a stalemate situation.
Future Challenges Before 2027
Before the 2027 elections, PiS will need to answer two important questions regarding international policy. The key issue for PiS, Konfederacja, and Grzegorz Braun will be the end of the war in Ukraine. This will reduce one of the topics that mobilized additional voters, such as migration or Ukrainian agriculture.
The second strategic dilemma is deepening European integration. Konfederacja and Braun will oppose this, but PiS’s electorate is internally ambivalent. Jarosław Kaczyński faces these dilemmas first and foremost. However, observing the way politics has been conducted in PiS in recent months, one might get the impression that there are no simple answers to these questions.
