Poland’s ruling Law and Justice party (PiS) has branded opposition figure Grzegorz Braun a “Russian agency” and “madman”, while asserting that its calculations are irrefutable.
PiS’s Weakening Support and Opposition Rise
Recent election results, in which presidential candidate Karol Nawrocki secured 6.34% of the vote—more than Szymon Hołownia or left‑wing contenders—were a fleeting gain for PiS. Current polls show PiS stagnating or falling after a mid‑June uptick, while opposition support hovers below 30%, with the Civic Coalition leading the field.
Grzegorz Braun’s Controversial Record
Right‑wing extremist Grzegorz Braun, founder of the Confederation Korony Polskiej, has risen since 2022, questioning aid to Ukraine and inflaming anti‑Jewish rhetoric—from banning Hanukkah lights in Parliament to denying the Holocaust. His party routinely polls between 5% and over 7% in national surveys, yet it garnered 6.34% in the presidential race.
Possibility of Ending the US Alliance
In a mid‑September meeting in Kielce, Jarosław Kaczyński warned that partnering with Braun would signal the end of the US alliance. PiS officials echoed the concern that relations with the United States—and other countries—would deteriorate, citing Braun’s outspoken antisemitism. Some lawmakers dismissed the notion, questioning why Braun should hold the cultural portfolio, while others hinted that a majority might oblige cooperation with him.
A ‘Trójpakt’ with the Confederation in the Senate
PiS members are weighing a “right‑wing Senate pact” (the “Trójpakt”) that would enlist the Confederation Korony Polskiej. Calculations show that such an alliance could secure 60 Senate seats, providing a clear majority. Skipping the pact risks handing the chamber to Adam Tusk’s coalition.
Strategic Options and Internal Debates
Within PiS, views differ: some legislators are open to alliance with Braun to build a majority, while others refuse, labeling his party a “Russian agency” or “idiots.” To sidestep such collaboration, PiS is planning to deploy strong right‑wing candidates—such as Janusz Kowalski or Robert Bąkiewicz—in eastern Poland to compete directly with Braun’s influence. The party hopes to maintain control of the Senate without compromising on Braun.