Polish ruling party PiS grapples with internal divisions while President Kaczyński prepares to replace Prime Minister Morawiecki ahead of elections.
Poll Numbers and Internal Conflict
Surveys show PiS polling at 20-23%, significantly behind the opposition KO with 34.5%. The latest OGB poll gives PiS nearly 28% support, still insufficient for a parliamentary majority. The party has been mired in internal disputes for months.
Power Struggle Between Factions
The conflict primarily pits the faction associated with former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki against the hard-right group represented by Przemysław Czarnek, Patryk Jaki, and Tobiasz Bocheński. The latter is derogatorily called “maślarze” by Morawiecki’s allies. President Kaczyński appears to favor the more right-wing approach.
Dispute Over EU Defense Program
The latest disagreement concerns the EU’s SAFE defense program, which most PiS members oppose and demand President Karol Nawrocki veto legislation implementing it in Poland. Michał Dworczyk, a former aide to Morawiecki and ex-deputy defense minister, recently defended SAFE in a TV channel close to Morawiecki.
Morawiecki’s Exclusion
Dworczyk was excluded from a PiS conference on security and defense in Stalowa Wola, a decision reportedly made by Kaczyński at the urging of PiS parliamentary club leader Mariusz Błaszczak. Sources in PiS indicate this is not the only blow planned for the former prime minister.
Kaczyński’s Plans for New PM
Kaczyński appears determined to replace Morawiecki as the party’s prime minister candidate. In a Radio Maryja interview, he emphasized the need for a candidate who can win elections, not one relying on past merits, and claimed to have already selected such a person. The new candidate is expected to be presented in March.
Potential Candidates
The most frequently mentioned names in party speculation are European Parliament member Tobiasz Bocheński, former education minister Przemysław Czarnek, and Zbigniew Bogucki, head of the President’s Office. Kaczyński is said to prefer someone under fifty, which eliminates Morawiecki (born 1968).
Morawiecki’s Response
Morawiecki’s camp denies plans to leave PiS despite ongoing speculation, dismissing such claims as mainly promoted by the “maślarze” faction. However, they acknowledge that Bocheński’s selection would be seen as an attempt to humiliate the former prime minister. Some suggest the new candidate might be a placeholder.
Preparing for 2027 Elections
The new PM candidate will represent a fresh face for PiS’s 2027 election campaign. They will likely head a team of party experts responsible for reviewing the current government’s work and proposing solutions to Poland’s key problems.
