United Surveys poll shows PiS at 31.8% lead over KO’s 26.2% in hypothetical January elections.
Poll Results
A United Surveys poll conducted for Wirtualna Polska from January 16-18 showed that if parliamentary elections were held in mid-January, Law and Justice (PiS) would win with 31.8% support, up 5.9 percentage points from a poll conducted January 2-4. Civic Coalition (KO) would place second with 26.2% of the vote, down 4.7 percentage points.
Confederation would be third with 14% support, an increase of 2.8 percentage points. Other parties entering the Sejm would include Konfederacja Korony Polskiej Grzegorza Brauna at 7.1% (down 2.6 percentage points) and Nowa Lewica at 5.9% (down 2.3 percentage points). Parties below the 5% threshold included PSL at 4.8%, Razem at 2.7%, and Polska 2050 at 2.3%.
Seat Distribution Simulations
Based on the poll results and a calculator developed by Professor Jarosław Flis of Jagiellonian University, Wirtualna Polska conducted a simulation of seat distribution in the Sejm.
The simulation indicated that such a distribution would mean a “radical change in the balance of power.” PiS could achieve a parliamentary majority through a coalition with Confederation, without needing to include Grzegorza Brauna’s party. If PiS formed a coalition with both Confederation and Konfederacja Korony Polskiej Brauna, this right-wing bloc would hold 288 seats, which would be enough to override presidential vetoes (a 3/5 majority, or 276 votes, is required).
The United Surveys poll was conducted on a representative sample of 1,000 adult Poles.
Alternative Poll Data
Recently published results from Opinia24 polling showed different results: Koalicja Obywatelska (KO) had the highest support at 30.9%, followed by PiS at 25.8%, and Confederation at 12.8%. Other parties included Konfederacja Korony Polskiej at 7.4%, Nowa Lewica at 7.1%, Polska 2050 at 4%, PSL at 3.3%, and Razem at 2.7%. This poll was conducted January 12-14 with 1,001 adult Polish participants.