New poll shows PiS leading with 31.8%, while right-wing parties gain strength in potential parliamentary elections.
Party Poll: PiS Leads KO
United Surveys conducted a party poll for Wirtualna Polska between January 16-18. The results show that if parliamentary elections were held in mid-January, PiS would win with 31.8% support, up 5.9 percentage points from a poll conducted January 2-4. Koalicja Obywatelska would place second with 26.2% support, down 4.7 percentage points.
Confederation Before Braun’s Party and New Left
Third place went to Konfederacja with 14% support, up 2.8 percentage points. Other parties that would enter the Sejm include Konfederacja Korony Polskiej Grzegorza Brauna (7.1%, down 2.6 percentage points) and Nowa Lewica (5.9%, down 2.3 percentage points). Parties below the five percent threshold include PSL (4.8%), Razem (2.7%), and Polska 2050 (2.3%).
Seat Distribution in the Sejm
Based on the poll results and a calculator developed by Prof. Jarosław Flis from Jagiellonian University, Wirtualna Polska conducted a simulation of parliamentary seat distribution. Virtualna Polska noted that this seat distribution would mean a “radical change in the balance of power.” PiS could achieve a parliamentary majority with a coalition with Konfederacja, without needing to include Braun’s party. If PiS formed a coalition with both Konfederacja and Konfederacja Korony Polskiej, such a broad right-wing bloc would have 288 seats, which would be a majority allowing the override of presidential vetoes (a 3/5 majority, or 276 votes, is needed for this).
Opinia24 Poll
Recently, results from a poll by Opinia24 were also published. In this poll, Koalicja Obywatelska received the most support with 30.9%, followed by PiS with 25.8%, and Konfederacja with 12.8%. Other parties included: Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (7.4%), Nowa Lewica (7.1%), Polska 2050 (4%), PSL (3.3%), and Razem (2.7%). This poll was conducted between January 12-14 and included 1,001 adult Poles.