A new poll shows Law and Justice leading the Civic Coalition with a growing right-wing majority potential in Polish parliament.
Party Poll: PiS Leads KO
United Surveys conducted a party poll for Wirtualna Polska from January 16-18. The survey showed that if parliamentary elections were held in mid-January, Law and Justice (PiS) would win with 31.8% support.
Support for PiS increased by 5.9 percentage points compared to the poll conducted from January 2-4. The Civic Coalition (KO) took second place, with 26.2% of respondents (a drop of 4.7 percentage points).
Confederation Ahead of Braun’s Party and New Left
In third place was the Confederation, with 14% of respondents (an increase in support by 2.8 percentage points).
The Sejm would also include Grzegorz Braun’s Polish Crown Confederation (7.1%, a drop of 2.6 percentage points) and New Left (5.9%, a drop of 2.3 percentage points). Results below the 5% threshold were obtained by PSL (4.8%), Razem (2.7%), and Poland 2050 (2.3%).
Distribution of Seats in the Sejm
Based on the poll results and a calculator developed by Prof. Jarosław Flis of Jagiellonian University, Wirtualna Polska conducted a simulation of the distribution of Sejm seats.
Wirtualna Polska noted that such a seat distribution would mean a “radical change in the balance of power.” PiS could achieve a parliamentary majority by forming a coalition with the Confederation, without needing to include Grzegorz Braun’s party. Meanwhile, if PiS were to form a coalition with both the Confederation and Grzegorz Braun’s Polish Crown Confederation, such a broad right-wing bloc would have 288 seats.
This would be a majority allowing for the rejection of presidential vetoes (a 3/5 majority is needed for this, which is 276 votes). The United Surveys study was conducted on a representative sample of 1,000 adult Poles.
Opinia24 Poll
Recently, the results of a survey by Opinia24 were also published. The highest support in it was for the Civic Coalition (30.9%), second was PiS (25.8%), and third was the Confederation (12.8%).
Next came: Polish Crown Confederation (7.4%), New Left (7.1%), Poland 2050 (4%), PSL (3.3%), and Razem (2.7%). This poll was conducted on January 12-14. 1001 adult Poles participated.