Following a series of high-level personnel changes in Kyiv, an OSW expert analyzes President Volodymyr Zelensky’s real decision-making power and the impact on relations with Poland. <\/p>\n
This month witnessed a series of sudden personnel shifts in Ukraine’s leadership. The resignation of incumbent Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko, the dismissal of Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, the emergence of Serhii Koretsky on the political scene, and the appointment of Gen. Mykhailo Drapatyi as the new commander sparked a wave of questions regarding the future of Polish-Ukrainian relations, the country’s reconstruction, and the frontline situation. We ask Dr. Marcin J\u0119drysiak, an expert at the Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) specializing in Belarus, Ukraine, and Moldova, about the background of these decisions, the role of President Volodymyr Zelensky, and the government’s actual influence on Kyiv’s strategic choices.<\/p>\n
The July reshuffle in the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers and key military positions coincided with mounting challenges ahead of the upcoming winter. Many observers wonder to what extent the introduction of new figures into the government will translate into improved strategic projects\u2014ranging from energy and infrastructure reconstruction to military cooperation with NATO partners.<\/p>\n
However, as Marcin J\u0119drysiak, an analyst at the OSW Department for Belarus, Ukraine, and Moldova, emphasizes, the decision-making structure in Kyiv under wartime conditions differs from the classical division of competences seen in Western states. To accurately assess the effects of the changes, it is crucial to understand where decisions are actually made.<\/p>\n
[INTERVIEW] What do the personnel reshuffles in Kyiv mean for Poland and the course of the war?<\/p>\n
Kasper Staru\u017cyk: How will changes in Koretsky’s government affect Ukraine’s cooperation with Poland in energy, infrastructure, and reconstruction?<\/p>\n
Dr. Marcin J\u0119drysiak: In Ukraine, the real decision-making center is the Office of the President, rather than the government. The change within the Cabinet of Ministers itself was likely not driven by deep reflection on policy directions, but rather by the desire to cover up the dismissal of Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov. For this reason, major changes in cooperation with Poland should not be expected, because decisions on this matter are made in the Office of the President rather than in the government.<\/p>\n
Will the appointment of Gen. Drapatyi as the new commander improve Ukraine’s military coordination with Poland and NATO?<\/p>\n
Probably not; issues of this type belong to the tasks of the Ministry of Defense, which is currently experiencing chaos related to Fedorov’s dismissal. Furthermore, even before the government changes, the deputy minister responsible for foreign affairs left the department.<\/p>\n
How will the new prime minister and potential changes in diplomacy affect Polish-Ukrainian relations, including historical issues and military support?<\/p>\n
As I mentioned, foreign policy in Ukraine is directed primarily from the Office of the President, not the government. The Minister of Foreign Affairs has a relatively small scope of action. Andriy Sybiha\u2014the current head of the MFA (there is no information indicating he is to be replaced)\u2014has experience in relations with Poland.<\/p>\n
The new prime minister comes from the energy sector (where he achieved certain successes) and, thanks to this expertise, may have a better understanding of how to support Ukrainian cities and municipalities in providing residents with electricity and heating. Given the specific setup in the Ukrainian authorities and the dominance of the government by the president, Ukraine’s external position is unlikely to change, especially since former Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko did not compromise herself in the West in any way.<\/p>\n
What do these personnel changes mean for the future of the war?<\/p>\n
Appointments to command positions were not made with specific changes in mind, but out of fear of public reaction\u2014during protests, society called for the dismissal of the current commander-in-chief of the armed forces, Gen. Syrskyi. Gen. Drapatyi has charisma, achievements, and competence, and he is also a person who advocates for modernization and reforms in the army. However, these depend not only on him, but also on cooperation with the Ministry of Defense (it is not yet known who will take this position) and with the president’s entourage. Some reforms (related, for example, to procurement) may, however, threaten the interests of circles close to the Ukrainian authorities, who often hold stakes in defense industry companies. Therefore, resistance to change will continue.<\/p>\n
Pre-war challenges and material resistance. What awaits Kyiv in the coming months?<\/p>\n
The analysis conducted by the OSW expert clearly shows that the July reshuffles in Kyiv are the result of social pressure and internal politics. The authorities’ fears of public reaction forced moves at the highest command levels, as exemplified by the promotion of the respected Gen. Mykhailo Drapatyi.<\/p>\n
On the other hand, the reformist potential of the new command and the technocratic background of the government in the energy sector may encounter a barrier in the form of internal business-political arrangements and bureaucracy surrounding the Ministry of Defense. For relations with Warsaw and key NATO partners, the most significant factor remains that key political and strategic decisions will not undergo drastic changes\u2014and will continue to flow directly from the Office of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Following a series of high-level personnel changes in Kyiv, an OSW expert analyzes President Volodymyr Zelensky’s real decision-making power and the impact on relations with Poland. Political Reshuffles at the Top This month witnessed a series of sudden personnel shifts in Ukraine’s leadership. The resignation of incumbent Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko, the dismissal of Defense […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"wpai_generated_summary":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[42],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15662","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-defense-and-world"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bizonews.com\/pl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15662","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bizonews.com\/pl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bizonews.com\/pl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bizonews.com\/pl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bizonews.com\/pl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15662"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bizonews.com\/pl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15662\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bizonews.com\/pl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15662"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bizonews.com\/pl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15662"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bizonews.com\/pl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15662"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}