Political scientist Dr. Ewelina Nowakowska analyzes the historic rift within Law and Justice (PiS), the fight for Jaros\u0142aw Kaczy\u0144ski’s political legacy, and what a shifting conservative landscape means for Poland’s future. <\/p>\n
\u2013 There is a turmoil on the right because it is increasingly clear that the battle for the political legacy of Jaros\u0142aw Kaczy\u0144ski has begun. The goal is to step into the role of the leader of the Polish right and eventually replace PiS. The key will be whether a durable political project can be created, says Dr. Ewelina Nowakowska from the SWPS University and IFiS PAN.<\/p>\n
We discuss who might take over the position of PiS in government, what determines the success of political parties, and what the election results in Poland in the autumn of 2027 depend on with Dr. Ewelina Nowakowska, a political scientist, political anthropologist, researcher, academic lecturer at SWPS University, and assistant professor at the Institute of Philosophy and Sociology of the Polish Academy of Sciences.<\/p>\n
Is this the end of PiS?<\/p>\n
The split in PiS is the largest in the history of the party, but it does not yet predetermine its end. I do not believe this crisis can cause a spectacular change in the balance of power in Polish politics.<\/p>\n
Pushing Morawiecki out of the party will not change the duopoly of PiS and PO, but it may affect the election result. A weakened PiS means a defeat in 2027 and a victory for PO, even though the ruling coalition currently arouses immense frustration and disappointment. Next autumn, we will still be choosing between PiS and PO.<\/p>\n
Why have we observed the same political setup in Poland for 20 years now, and nothing changes?<\/p>\n
It should be remembered that electoral participation in Poland is strongly linked to social structure. For nearly 20 years, we have observed the dominance of two groupings, PiS and PO(KO), which alternately take power. This is no coincidence.<\/p>\n
This duopoly responds to the life experiences of the generation that remains the most numerous among active voters and largely decides whether the right or center-left takes power. As long as this generation dominates the electorate structure, such a political setup has a chance to maintain itself.<\/p>\n
What decided the success of PiS and PO?<\/p>\n
The success of PiS and PO was decided not only by the ability to build a lasting political identification, but also by the skill of integrating various social groups within their own electorate. This happened through the creation of a shared narrative world with symbols and narratives explaining past experiences, in which voters find themselves.<\/p>\n
The division of Poland into a liberal and a solidary one, dedicated to the voters of PO and PiS, still strongly structures specific social groups. Post-transformation experiences play a key role in this process. They concern not only people who directly lived through the transformation, but also their children. Questions about who turned out to be more enterprising, who managed to succeed, and who was left behind, as well as who betrayed, constitute an important element of the narratives of both PiS and PO. In this way, this type of story provides coherent interpretations of reality, organizing complex political events and strengthening the sense of belonging to a specific community. As long as the generations that directly experienced the systemic transformation are alive, this way of identifying with PO or PiS will persist.<\/p>\n
In this exact way, the breadth of their social backing makes them the main participants in the competition for power for two decades.<\/p>\n
What moods currently prevail in PiS?<\/p>\n
There is a turmoil on the right because it is increasingly clear that the fight for the political legacy of Jaros\u0142aw Kaczy\u0144ski has begun. However, the upcoming elections will not predetermine the success of this undertaking. The goal is to step into the role of the leader of the Polish right and prospectively replace PiS. The key will be whether a durable political project can be successfully created. However, this is a long-term strategy, calculated for the gradual replacement of PiS as the dominant force on the right.<\/p>\n
What is the recipe for becoming one of the main political parties in Poland?<\/p>\n
Gaining the position of the main party of the right requires reaching out to many different environments, just as PiS has done so far. Mateusz Morawiecki has, in a sense, been pushed now to start this process. This situation may be an opportunity to build a new conservative grouping, but the success of such a project will be decided by its ability to encompass various social groups.<\/p>\n
It is about creating a broad programmatic offer, rather than a proposal directed exclusively at a narrow electorate, as is the case with Confederation or the environment of Grzegorz Braun. If someone thinks about taking over the leadership after PiS, they must build a broad social coalition.<\/p>\n
Does Mateusz Morawiecki have a high chance of replacing Kaczy\u0144ski?<\/p>\n
It seems that Morawiecki, with the support of President Nawrocki, has the highest chances in this regard. Until now, it seemed that Confederation could naturally replace PiS in the future. To a large extent, however, this was based on the assumption that there is no other alternative for it, because who from the center-right would dare to stand up for an open fight with Kaczy\u0144ski and build a competing political project? Now a more centrid Morawiecki is emerging, and such a direction may be more attractive (or simply easier to swallow) for many voters. Younger cohorts, contrary to frequently repeated opinions, are not that radical, and more broadly speaking, Polish society is not and rather will not be either.<\/p>\n
Will young people support him?<\/p>\n
Generation Z maybe not, but millennials already will. A similar mechanism was observed in the past, and we were surprised how voters who ridiculed Kaczy\u0144ski for years between 2007-2015 ultimately voted for him en masse in 2015. Over time, many things blur, and voters stop being guided by past assessments and simply begin to look for those who can become winners, have a chance to take power, and respond to their needs and challenges.<\/p>\n
Morawiecki faces a historic opportunity, but this will not happen in a year or two. This is a process spread over years. Placed in such a situation, he will now test public opinion reactions, listen to social moods, and check how these actions are received. It is not enough to announce a generational change and say that Morawiecki represents the “new right,” because PiS is very deeply rooted in the consciousness of voters.<\/p>\n
Thinking strategically, his goal will be to create lasting foundations for a new right-wing formation that will dominate this side of the political scene for the next 20 years, just as PiS has over the past two decades.<\/p>\n
What does this mean exactly?<\/p>\n
This means the necessity of building a coherent narrative, capable of integrating various social groups and creating the political identity of the next generation of voters. This is not an easy task because some “new” has already been. The point is that PiS was never a traditional right in the classical sense. It is a formation of a new type, defined primarily through opposition to the European establishment and the liberal social model. When building a new formation, one must therefore take into account that although many social moods remain unchanged, the structure of society has changed significantly.<\/p>\n
How has Polish society changed?<\/p>\n
Polish society has responded to social change. Today it is more culturally liberal and oriented to a greater extent toward individual development. It focuses on running its own businesses, professional development, and multiplying its income. Contemporary ideological identity is also shaped in such realities. Therefore, the new right cannot appeal solely to the narrative from two decades ago. It must respond to the expectations and, above all, the structure of a society operating under completely different economic and social conditions.<\/p>\n
Please look at the recent moves of the president, as well as how he comments on what is happening now in PiS. President Nawrocki, after winning the elections, is probing various environments and checking possibilities for cooperation. Perhaps the new force will turn out to be Mateusz Morawiecki and politicians from the centrist wing of Confederation, and the president will patronize this project.<\/p>\n
The right-wing electorate is generationally diverse. A potential new formation will have to find a way to combine the expectations of younger generations, but also with some portion of older voters. This will happen in the future. The foundation of such project will be today’s 30- and 40-year-olds, because they set the direction of future social and political changes. Today, older voters largely decide the outcome, and young people dot the i’s, but in the future, their place will be taken by the current younger generations, which will become the new core of the electorate.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Political scientist Dr. Ewelina Nowakowska analyzes the historic rift within Law and Justice (PiS), the fight for Jaros\u0142aw Kaczy\u0144ski’s political legacy, and what a shifting conservative landscape means for Poland’s future. The Historic Rift Within PiS \u2013 There is a turmoil on the right because it is increasingly clear that the battle for the political […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"wpai_generated_summary":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[43],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16740","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics-and-law"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bizonews.com\/pl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16740","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bizonews.com\/pl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bizonews.com\/pl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bizonews.com\/pl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bizonews.com\/pl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16740"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bizonews.com\/pl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16740\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bizonews.com\/pl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16740"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bizonews.com\/pl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16740"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bizonews.com\/pl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16740"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}