In October, Russian forces finally overtook the Ukrainian‑held city of Pokrovsk, ending a year‑long stalemate and marking a sharp shift in the Donetsk front as Ukrainian troops face rising desertion rates.
The War’s Relentless Condition
The battlefield has changed little month by month; the front shifts only gradually, favoring Ukrainians, yet overall conditions stay the same: Russia wields initiative, more resources, and sustained pressure, with losses within acceptable limits. Ukrainians cannot counter this.
Square‑Kilometre Metrics Are Secondary
Actual area covered by the front lines is a by‑product of the war of attrition focused on draining the opponent’s strength and will. Official loss figures are undisclosed, leaving observers to infer from satellite imagery, brief data, and the occasional media release.
Occupancy Rates Show No Evident Stall
Analysts consider a steady “occupation pace” — the number of square kilometres seized each month — as an indicator of Russian fatigue. While Russian gains fell from 400–500 km² in summer to about 250 km² in September and October, the rates remain stable, suggesting no decisive slowdown. Independent groups report October values of 468 km², consistent with autumn figures.
Front‑Line Numbers Remain Steady
Ukrainian daily reports show 140–180 attacks, 150–170 aerial bombs, and 5382 directed bombs in October — record totals. Russian losses stay near 1 000 individuals per day and a few dozen vehicles, while heavy equipment losses have decreased due to reduced drone activity.
Pokrovsk Falls After a Year‑Long Stalemate
In October the Russians finally breached Pokrovsk’s defenses, entering with small, several‑person units, turning previous chaos into a coordinated loss. The fighting moved to northern outskirts, where Ukraine tries to keep open supply routes, especially toward Myrnohrad. Russian forces now occupy routes that facilitate further advances toward the railway line 20 km beyond.
Morale Decline Spurs Record Desertions
Persistent Russian pressure, limited manpower, and logistical hardships erode Ukrainian morale. October saw a record 21 000 desertions and self‑withdrawals, challenging the early war patriotism and exposing difficulties in rotation and supply.
