EBRD’s Prof. Beata Javorcik warns Poland’s growth, while positive, relies on unsustainable public investments and faces demographic headwinds.
Positive Growth Outlook
Prof. Beata Javorcik emphasizes that Poland continues to perform well in the region, with this year’s economic growth projections clearly positive. “We look good compared to other Central and Eastern European countries,” she notes. However, she points out that the current growth dynamics heavily depend on public investments, which cannot be a sustainable foundation for development.
Unsustainable Investment Model
“This is not an engine that will work indefinitely,” the economist stresses. She recalls that Poland’s success over the past three decades stemmed primarily from catching up with developed economies, based on importing technology, knowledge, and innovations. Today, this model is gradually depleting. “To a large extent, we have caught up with developed countries and are entering a much more difficult development stage,” she states.
Innovation and Capital Access
According to Prof. Javorcik, the key question today is whether Poland and Europe can build growth based on their own ideas. “This doesn’t always work out,” she admits. The European Union’s ambition is to keep innovations on the continent so that new technologies and business models generate revenue here, not outside Europe. However, the problem remains access to capital. “We have too little money for new companies,” evaluates the chief economist of the EBRD. She believes the debate on innovations must translate into concrete actions facilitating young entrepreneurs’ access to financing and scaling operations. Without this, Europe will lose its most promising projects to other markets.
Demographic Crisis
The interview also touches on a topic that Javorcik says politicians often push aside because its effects span decades: demography. “The median age in Poland is 32 years today. We are as old as developed countries but still poorer than them,” she observes. “We are aging before we got rich,” she adds. The shrinking number of working-age people will increasingly affect growth rates and living standards. “Demography will erode our standard of living,” warns the economist. She believes the possible scenarios are difficult: relying on artificial intelligence will not fully solve the problem, and mass migration remains socially and politically controversial. “According to our calculations, we would need to accept migrants equivalent to 1% of the current population annually,” she points out.
