A Polish politologist explains the rise in anti-EU sentiment, the failure of scare tactics regarding leaving the EU, and the shifting narratives within Polish politics.
Patriotism and European Identity
Piotr Buras, a political scientist and European affairs expert, asserts that national patriotism does not contradict European identity, identifying as both Polish and European.
The prevalence of this view in Poland is difficult to ascertain, requiring careful interpretation of public opinion polls, distinguishing between support for EU membership and a deeper internalization of European values like freedom and social justice.
The Normalization of Polexit
While approximately 25% of Polish society now expresses a desire to leave the EU, Buras suggests this isn’t necessarily alarming compared to other countries, but reflects a growing debate about sovereignty.
This trend is linked to a concerted anti-EU campaign by the right-wing opposition, met with a less convincing response from liberal factions.
Shifting Support Within PiS
Data from Ogólnopolskiej Grupy Badawczej shows a significant drop in support for EU membership among PiS voters, from 86% in 2019 to 46% today, indicating a near-equal division within the party’s electorate.
Buras believes this decline is largely a consequence of the right-wing’s narrative offensive, rather than genuine shifts in societal emotions, centering around concerns about national sovereignty.
The Limits of Financial Arguments
Buras criticizes pro-EU advocates for relying too heavily on the argument of financial benefits, neglecting the broader civilizational choice represented by EU membership.
Poland’s economic growth and increased wealth have diminished the appeal of simply being a net recipient of EU funds, and a sense of national pride is emerging.
A Matter of Dignity and Sovereignty
Some believe Poland has grown strong enough to not rely on EU funds with conditions attached, questioning the value of EU membership if financial benefits are no longer the primary driver.
The EU inherently limits national sovereignty, and Polish liberals have failed to convince citizens that integration is essential for economic independence.
A New Pro-EU Narrative
Buras argues the pro-European side needs a positive, future-oriented narrative, acknowledging the problems associated with globalization and addressing societal frustrations.
He suggests recognizing the EU’s recent successes, such as its support for Ukraine and the move away from Russian gas, while acknowledging its shortcomings.
The Rise of Populism and the “Obvious” Enemy
The EU has become a convenient “other” for the extreme right to blame for societal problems, requiring a more reflective response from pro-European forces.
The current identity-based debate surrounding the EU risks escalating tensions and becoming uncontrollable, similar to the situation in the United Kingdom.
Government Response and the Risk of Legitimacy
The government’s response to anti-EU rhetoric, including adopting similar language on issues like the Mercosur agreement and migration, risks legitimizing the most ardent opponents of the EU.
Populists effectively exploit “Triggerpunkte” – inflammatory topics – to dominate public discourse, and the government appears to be recognizing this dynamic.
The Danger of Normalizing Polexit
Buras warns that framing Polexit as a legitimate option normalizes the idea, potentially leading to a destructive polarization that is difficult to control.
He emphasizes the need to move beyond simply warning about the dangers of leaving the EU.