Polish labor market data reveals record-low job terminations, yet worker sentiment is declining due to anxieties about future unemployment in early 2026.
Contradictory Signals from the Polish Labor Market
The Polish labor market is sending mixed signals: statistics are improving, but employee sentiment is clearly worsening. Data indicates a record low in job cuts, while simultaneously, the belief that finding work will be more difficult is growing. Money.pl identifies both statistical and structural reasons for this discrepancy.
Registered Unemployment Rises Due to Regulatory Changes
In March, the registered unemployment rate was 6.1%, compared to 5.4% a year earlier. However, Money.pl explains that this increase is largely due to changes in regulations, not a real collapse of the labor market.
New Labor Market Law Impacts Registration Rules
The new law on the labor market and employment services changed the rules for registering the unemployed. Allowing registration based on place of residence instead of permanent address, and extending unemployment status eligibility to all farmers, increased the number of people visible in the statistics. Simultaneously, the rules for removal from the register were relaxed.
Real Unemployment Rate Lower Than Reported
Simulations cited by Money.pl show that without legislative changes, the unemployment rate in March would have been around 5.5%, only 0.1 percentage points higher than the previous year. The number of registered unemployed would have been nearly 100,000 lower.
Record Employment and Stable Demand for Workers
Despite growing concerns, employment data remains very positive. Money.pl reports that the number of people employed in Poland in the fourth quarter of 2025 exceeded 17.3 million – the highest figure in history for this period.
Administrative data confirms this. Although in November 2025, the number of people employed in the national economy was approximately 15.1 million, or 67,000 less than a year earlier, this decline was smaller than the decrease in the working-age population, which reached 128,000.
The employer expectations indicator published by the European Commission remains above 100 points – in April it was 102.9 points. This signals that companies are still planning to increase employment.
Decline in Company Employment Doesn’t Signal Crisis
Data on the corporate sector can be misleading. In March, employment in companies employing at least 10 people amounted to approximately 6.4 million, or 0.9% less than a year earlier.
Money.pl notes that these statistics are affected by methodological changes – the sample of companies included in the survey is updated annually. This means that year-on-year comparisons are not always fully reliable.
Furthermore, the number of people employed is decreasing more slowly than the number of jobs, suggesting a growing popularity of part-time work.
Fewest Job Terminations in Years
The most telling indicator of the condition of the labor market is the number of jobs terminated. In the fourth quarter of 2025, just under 51,000 jobs disappeared – 13.6% less than a year earlier. Throughout the year, this figure was approximately 237,000, the lowest since at least 2009.
This contradicts the narrative of mass layoffs. Money.pl indicates that some of the terminated jobs are not layoffs, but natural departures of employees into retirement. ZUS data shows that approximately 300,000 people start receiving retirement benefits annually.
Fewer New Jobs and Vacancies
At the same time, the number of new jobs is clearly decreasing. In the fourth quarter of 2025, just over 74,000 were created, 12.5% less than a year earlier. Throughout the year, this figure was approximately 403,000 – also the lowest in several years.
The number of vacancies decreased to approximately 86,000 at the end of the year, averaging 94,000. This is 12% less than in 2024.
This trend explains the worsening social moods. Fewer job offers mean a longer job search time and greater uncertainty – even if the risk of job loss remains low.
Structural Changes and Skills Mismatch
The Polish labor market is increasingly feeling the effects of demographic changes. The working-age population is decreasing, while the importance of sectors requiring specialized skills is growing.
As a result, despite the relatively high number of vacancies, matching employees to job offers is becoming more difficult. The problem is not only the number of candidates, but also their qualifications, experience, and location.
Additionally, the importance of self-employment and shifts between industries is growing, changing the traditional picture of the labor market.
Rising Polish Fears Despite Stable Fundamentals
A GUS consumer sentiment survey shows that over 45% of Poles expect unemployment to rise in the next 12 months, and over 16% predict a significant increase. These are the highest values since the beginning of 2023.
Money.pl emphasizes that these fears have been growing since mid-2025, despite the fact that the fundamentals of the labor market remain stable. A key factor is the decreasing number of new job offers and the lengthening recruitment time.
As a result, a paradox arises: the labor market remains relatively strong, but social perceptions are becoming increasingly pessimistic.
