Poland faces critical delays in military modernization as political opposition grows against the EU’s SAFE program providing essential defense funding.
No Alternative to SAFE
There is no alternative to SAFE that would allow Poland to obtain such a large injection of cash for security investments as quickly. This concerns 226 billion zloty by the end of this decade. This is not a discussion about whether it’s better to take loans from the EU, USA, or finance the army independently. We cannot afford the luxury of being choosy. If we reject SAFE, the military modernization program will stall within three years.
Massive Funding and Key Legislative Provision
For years, experts have viewed the EU program of cheap, long-term loans for defense investments as an opportunity to maintain the pace of modernization of the Polish Army. The fundamental problem is that we want to be fast, large-scale, and effective. Poland currently has contracts for equipment purchases worth about 600 billion zloty, with approximately 500 billion zloty remaining to be paid over a decade.
Another 500-600 billion zloty needs to be spent by the end of the 30-year period for further modernization, focusing solely on weapon purchases, excluding personnel and maintenance costs. A crucial Senate amendment would repay SAFE loans from outside the Ministry of Defense budget, freeing up additional funds for defense.
Time Constraints
Short deadlines are the biggest problem with the SAFE program from a Polish perspective. Projects must be realized by the end of 2030, and national contracts must be signed by the end of May this year. This excludes a whole range of important defense programs and significantly limits the amount of equipment Poland can order. The government and military have kept the program confidential, with only general information provided about what will be purchased.
Clear Assessment
The potential loss of these 226 billion zloty (185 billion net plus 41 billion in VAT exemptions) would be a huge problem for the Ministry of Defense and the army. The entire Ministry of Defense budget is currently around 100 billion zloty annually, supplemented by several dozen billion zloty annually from the Fund for Supporting the Armed Forces.
The SAFE program offers a chance to temporarily postpone the lack of funds for further major weapon purchases. Repayment of EU loans is deferred until after 2036 and spread over 45 years, making it attractive considering the crisis situation for the Ministry of Defense budget in the coming decade. According to expert Tomasz Dmitruk, the benefits far outweigh the drawbacks, and rejecting the program would be an unforgivable mistake.
